- 20 Oct 2007 12:12
rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.
for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ
for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance
- 20 Oct 2007 12:41
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ref post 1315 of the dubious selloff thread , looks like an elliot wave expanding flat correction on the dow to me , so can expect dow to stop a few hundred points below 12500
- 20 Oct 2007 12:45
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don't know what elliott wave is but will post DOW and S&P charts here later.
meanwhile, have checked back at my archives of sophisticated charts and note that with Dow having peaked at +/-14250, the correction, assuming no very speedy recovery, could easily take it back to 12000, though obviously not without intervening rallies
- 20 Oct 2007 14:29
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cynic , Elliot Wave , is the BEST "Hindsight" method of trading ever invented!.
- 20 Oct 2007 16:27
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so enlighten us all please!
- 20 Oct 2007 18:34
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go to elliotwave.com , everything you NEVER NEEDED to know!
- 21 Oct 2007 08:05
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cynic, a good resource and explanation of the Elliott Wave can be found here
You may also like to take a look at the reference to the 'efficient market hypothesis' (see here)
which states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck.
An explanation here
relates to the 'Random Walk hypothesis' which claims stock prices are completely random because of the efficiency of the market and therefore cannot be predicted.
- 21 Oct 2007 09:47
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Good thread Cynic, FTSE 250 does tend to have a much wider spread, 60 points round trip as opposed to 2 on FTSE in trading hours which can eat into profits, though obviously it has a different exposure
- 21 Oct 2007 10:16
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Falcothou, present price of FTSE 100 (ISF) is 655.75 - 656.25 whilst FTSE 250 (MIDD) is 1117.5 - 1121.5
................or are you referring to spreadbetting??
- 21 Oct 2007 16:23
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all relating to CFD trading ..... FTSE has a spread of 2/4 points depending on whether open or not and Dow 4/6 ..... FTSE 250 has a spread of 50 points but unlike the main indices, is not tradable ouit of hours
- 21 Oct 2007 17:58
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Hi Harry, I only refer to the spreadbetting platform that I have used to trade the 250 in the past but came to the conclusion that it was more cost effective to trade the 100 instead of the 250 and just double the gearing to get a similar result without getting clobbered for as much commision. I do not know whether CFDS have a tighter spread on the 250
- 21 Oct 2007 23:24
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FTSE currently indicating to open at 6440 = -80 on friday's close = implies financials in particular likely to be hammered again and also FTSE 250
- 24 Oct 2007 09:35
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watch the charts in general for guidance ...... indications this morning are that Dow will open sharply down, which once more will put 50 dma under pressure ...... if Countrywide frightens the market at all on Friday with Q3 results (see Dubious Sell-off), then a very big fall is more than likely ...... a reasonable strategy may be to go short wirth a guaranteed stop
- 24 Oct 2007 22:06
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after today's topsy turvy trading, s&p giving very contradictory signal from both Dow and Nasdaq .... make of that what you will
- 25 Oct 2007 08:06
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Dow swinging like a Surrey suburb
- 30 Oct 2007 21:03
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NASDAQ continues to indicate north while all others are now looking south ...... as posted elsewhere, i am currently short of DOW as i think the markets are way way ahead of themselves and further, cannot see Fed reducing rates by more than 0.25%, and just possibly will not even do that ..... one way or another, after the news, or maybe even before it, expect a sell-off ..... DOW currently down about 80 this evening.
conversely, i shall almost certainly go SHORT on cable - i.e. £:$ - as upper target of 20700 has been hit all bar a tiny fraction .... if Fed rates not lowered by more than 0.25% with (probable) indication of no more likely in the near future, then expect $ to rally sharply
- 01 Nov 2007 13:17
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certainly not to my surprise, Dow is looking very soggy to open - currently indicating down 135 - so my short there is now comfortably in the money again.
on the other hand, $ remains exceptionally weak at 20830 ..... i confess that i thought it would strengthen very sharply from this level (see above) and with no further Fed cuts looking imminent, this may shortly prove to be the case