- 03 Oct 2007 08:11
It is now over 4 years since I started this thread.
During that period a lot has happened (an understatement if ever there as one).
Several oilies have drilled numerous wells, most with little success as yet, although Rockhopper Exploration has made significant finds.
These finds are in the process of being updated and have drawn interest from at least 5 oil production companies.
The sp of FKL in Oct 2007 was around 400p, which is almost level with todays sp.
Due to many what I consider low risk factors, the sp is well below true valuation.
In saying that I am leaving all fundamentals out of my reasoning, and looking solely at potential.
Over the last few months, I have read numerous reports regarding how the current exploration will make the Islanders rich.
Of course that wealth will be passed along to the businesses that are situated on the Falklands themselves.
With Falklands islands Holdings being 'The Business' on the islands, with fingers in many pies, they are ideally situated to cash in on all the areas mentioned.
I suggest to anyone who as not been following the Falklands Story, or are new to this thread, to peruse the latest news releases of FKL. Also those of RKH (Rockhopper) Fogl (Falklands Oil and Gas) Des (Desire Petroleum) and Bor (Borders and Southern).
I am not pushing any of these other companies, but to post all the relevant updates on this header would take the whole page.
Remember who made steady big money during the Klondike Gold Rush.
OK some miners made fortunes, but the big steady money was made by those who saw the potential in suppling the essentials, IE those that supplied the tools to do the job.
I look at FKL as a sort of hedging to the explorers themselves.
But with hedging like this, we can all win.
- 08 Dec 2008 16:25
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FOGL's sp is dependant on whether BHP/BLT decide to drill in 2009, if they do go ahead in spite of a lower oil price this would generate a great deal of speculative excitement. Don't hold your breath!
- 17 Dec 2008 07:57
- 26 of 163
Nice update re FOGL
Falkland Oil and Gas Provides Operational Update
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
- 05 Mar 2009 07:50
- 27 of 163
Re the trading update.
RNS states....will be slightly lower than market expectations of £2.4m.
The MoneyAm release states in line with expectations despite the difficult economic environment.
So RNS lower, MoneyAm in line. Great.
Still a bit of a neutral statement. As we know the only thing to give this a jump, up or down will be the final outcome from the oil fields.
- 09 Mar 2009 11:01
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It appears that figures released today show that although mergers/acquisitions over the last year have dropped in general terms by 20% globally and 9% in the UK, such moves in the Oil and Gas industry have risen by 73% in those listed in the UK.
Presumably most if not a large percentage will be of profit making companies.
So what will happen if companies such as those investing in the Falkland Fields start to make decent profits. Will they be taken out by the big boys.
The above figures do make it likely. There is a huge difference between 9% down and 73% up.
No personal opinion re this, just looking at the figures (taken from The Daily Telegraph).
- 20 Apr 2009 18:25
- 29 of 163
What price a barrel of oil.
Oil is now around $50 per barrel, which according to an article in The Daily Telegraph is too low to cover cost of undeveloped fields or investing in new fields.
It states that to cover these costs the price would have to be around $70.
It then shows that at a time when the worlds know deposits are dwindling, Asia especially China is still expanding industrially at break neck speed.
China is expected to have 140 million cars on it's roads by 2020, a 7 fold increase.
As it takes many years from an initial find of a possible productive field, to the oil finally flowing, this must surely be an excellent example of why oil companies can not just sit on their hands when the oil price is not commercial enough.
They can not sit on the proverbial fence twiddling their thumbs.
Oil is the life blood of the modern world just as much as water was to the old one.
Wars were/are still being fought over both.
Yes there may be several new ideas for power/propulsion fuels but they are all many years away.
The price of the $180 oil barrel is not dead.
- 16 Jun 2009 08:26
- 30 of 163
Looks like they are just ticking over and waiting for the oil fields to deliver.
Can't see the sp moving anyway from here except down.
At least the cash situation is still strong.
Will just sit on this till 2010 as I do not see drilling this side of Xmas.
If nothing moves in early 2010, no doubt many holders will review.
When will any of the Falkland Oil Field connected companies get that long awaited rig.
Still confident, but patience is wearing a bit thin.
- 10 Sep 2009 08:48
- 31 of 163
Will be interesting to see if the sp finishes the day on a high after this afternoons AGM (currently 12% up).
With a market cap (as the 7th) of £23.36 mill and the holdings in FOGL worth at todays market price £15.9 mill thing are still looking positive.
Obviously it all depends on the final outcome of the wells to be drilled.
Still a big gamble but one in my opinion worth the current sp, not forgetting the decent divi.
Good news from DES...Desire Petroleum plc (AIM:DES) the exploration company focusing on the North Falkland Basin, is pleased to announce that it has exchanged a letter of intent with Diamond Offshore Drilling (UK) Ltd for the drilling unit the Ocean Guardian to undertake a four well minimum drilling campaign in the North Falkland Basin.
The Ocean Guardian is currently in the North Sea and following a programme of shipyard work will mobilise in November 2009. Projected arrival in Falkland waters is early February 2010. Desire has options to drill a further four wells for itself and or its partners. Further details will be announced post contract completion which is subject to various approvals, including Desire Board, Partner and regulatory approvals.
The next question will be who will be next for a rig... Fogl would be nice. What price FKL then.
Thought of a quick sell then buy back a I do feel todays rise is a bit overdone and it will close lower, but with a spread of 5%, the mms know the score.
- 10 Sep 2009 10:46
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As the sp rises so does the spread. Typical market games.
- 10 Sep 2009 11:44
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FKL up 50p to 310 by lunch. This is a GOOD day after such a long wait!
- 11 Sep 2009 08:21
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Yet more movement from one of the Falkland Oil Crew Companies.
Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas explorer, is pleased to announce that it has agreed terms with a third party energy company for a farm-in to one of the Company's licences, through a contribution, at a promote, to the costs of drilling one well on the licence and to certain back costs. A Letter of Intent to farm in has been signed and discussions continue to progress the agreement this into a fully binding joint venture.
Now I wonder if this will end up like the bus stop syndrome. You seem to wait for ages for one to come along, then what happens, three or more come at once.
- 11 Sep 2009 13:09
- 35 of 163
Tipped in the Independent.
Very rarely take tips at face value, but this write up makes sense.
The interesting bit about Falkland Island Holdings is its 15% shareholding in Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL). Investors may look at the conglomerate instead of a direct investment in FOGL because it has a diversified income stream, an 8p dividend and doesn't rely on a big find. If there is one, however, shares will soar. Although yesterday's gain might have taken out much of the near-term upside, its prospects look good, so buy says the Independent.
- 12 Sep 2009 10:25
- 36 of 163
As reiterated in todays press, the oil majors such as Shell, BP, Exxon and the like are still desperate to boost their inventories, mainly due to the fact of low oil reserves on their books, but also due to intentionally over estimating for the last fews years in order to enhance their share prices.
As the Falkland field possiblefinds are being talked about in the same volume category as the BP and Chevron recent finds in Mexico how long will it be before the minnows such as Des/Fogl/Rock and the like are taken over.
IMHO the question won't be so much if as when. Will they wait till oil is pumping in sufficient quantities and risk loosing out to a competitor that jumps first or chance getting in on the ground, IE now.
Both strategy are a risk but which once will they take.
- 30 Nov 2009 15:46
- 37 of 163
Re the RNS.
FKL sell 20% stake in FOGL.
OK, they have made a very nice profit on the sale, but as I mainly bought FKL because of it's investment in Fogl, initially on the news I though that this was a bad move especially as drilling looks closer than at any time.
On seeing the sp rise on the news, I had to look at the other angle.
I now feel that FKL have played this very well with an astute move.
The money attained will be available for, "The proceeds of sale give us the flexibility to take advantage of investment opportunities particularly in the Falklands and will leave us with a modest level of gearing .At the same time we have retained a very meaningful shareholding in FOGL.
As Gismoe states, they have a good part of the infrastructure.
In fact they retains a number of parcels of land aggregating some 400 acres, with the potential for residential or commercial development. The Company also owns 22 residential properties which are rented out on a long-term basis to individuals, business users such as Ministry of Defence contractors, and fishing companies. FIC is steadily developing these sites as the economy of the Islands continues to grow and is well placed in the event that significant oil or mineral production takes place.
I think that says it all. When/if the oil stats to flow the price of land and development will rocket, as it always does when the oil flows.
The population of the Falkland Islands will also multiple several times, which will also mean big profit opportunities for FKL.
So from being initially not happy and surprised at the move, I am quite pleased
- 30 Nov 2009 15:52
- 38 of 163
Lets hope the Argentines see it your way!
- 30 Nov 2009 17:34
- 39 of 163
maybe thats what the war was all about? it's what they usually and most are or seem to be(unless we are invaded) despite or regardless of the supposed reasons that we are fed via the propaganda machine that has existed throughout history. although we ( joe public) seem to never be aware of the "real" reasons at the time, or even after.
no guarantees but i suppose governments have to weigh up the risk/reward factors and then feed the ganda to us in a propa way.
doent mean i think they will find anything, maybe they will, maybe they wont. as always just my opinion and please all dyor
edit ( unless we are invaded) add ; including the invader, after all they have a motive also
- 01 Dec 2009 15:23
- 40 of 163
Just tried a test trade to sell. Received following message.
'This stock cannot be executed automatically at this time
Please enter a limit price to place a limit order for this stock or try again later'.
I appreciate this type of message is not unknown, but it is rare.
Could mean a further noticeable increase/decrease in the sp.
- 01 Dec 2009 15:36
- 41 of 163
2500 buyable on auto-trade with Selftrade. Maybe your sell is over the on-line limit.
- 01 Dec 2009 15:46
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if you want to sell then just do as requested. put in a sell limit order. presumably you are taking some profit,i.e. price is above your purchase price. altenatively it would be a a sell stop order. and vice versa. even just 1 or 2 ticks should do the job.
- 01 Dec 2009 16:06
- 43 of 163
if you do sell on limit it is important to remember to cancel any sell stops gtc if they are sitting there,
- 01 Dec 2009 16:13
- 44 of 163
My trade sell was within the on-line limit.
I was thinking about selling, but mainly wanted to see the on-line offer.
Did not bother with a sell limit order as the only time I do put a sell/buy limit order in is when I cant keep a 100% watch on the sp. As I am sure you know, with shares as volatile as FKL anything can happen to vastly change the sp, and it would be just my luck to be unable to cancel my order, as it suddenly shot up.
So will watch and wait.
Just seen your last post. It takes me so long to type (now on 2 fingers) I had started my main comments before you had posted.