It is now over 4 years since I started this thread.
During that period a lot has happened (an understatement if ever there as one).
Several oilies have drilled numerous wells, most with little success as yet, although Rockhopper Exploration has made significant finds.
These finds are in the process of being updated and have drawn interest from at least 5 oil production companies.
The sp of FKL in Oct 2007 was around 400p, which is almost level with todays sp.
Due to many what I consider low risk factors, the sp is well below true valuation.
In saying that I am leaving all fundamentals out of my reasoning, and looking solely at potential.
Over the last few months, I have read numerous reports regarding how the current exploration will make the Islanders rich.
Of course that wealth will be passed along to the businesses that are situated on the Falklands themselves.
With Falklands islands Holdings being 'The Business' on the islands, with fingers in many pies, they are ideally situated to cash in on all the areas mentioned.

I suggest to anyone who as not been following the Falklands Story, or are new to this thread, to peruse the latest news releases of FKL. Also those of RKH (Rockhopper) Fogl (Falklands Oil and Gas) Des (Desire Petroleum) and Bor (Borders and Southern).
I am not pushing any of these other companies, but to post all the relevant updates on this header would take the whole page.

Remember who made steady big money during the Klondike Gold Rush.
OK some miners made fortunes, but the big steady money was made by those who saw the potential in suppling the essentials, IE those that supplied the tools to do the job.
I look at FKL as a sort of hedging to the explorers themselves.
But with hedging like this, we can all win.

Could be. Actually I do always check the Penguin News as well as the Ostrich Weekly.
Will keep you posted.

Nice to see FKL well up today. Sector up 1.99% with FKL up 6.82%. (1105 hr).

Now over 9% sp rise. It must be a leak re the date for a rig surely, or at least a big buy not yet showing on the books.

OK now we know why the sp rise (see Desire petroleum news DES.L)

SP up 10% probably on the back of the following, and the outlook re possible oil flow being on an upward slant.
Byron Holdings Ltd acquired 200,000 of its (Desire) at 53.125 pence each, taking its beneficial interest to about 1.6 mln shares, or 0.7 pct of the issued capital.

Desire Petroleum non-executive director Lewis Clifton is a director and shareholder of Byron Holdings.

EDIT.... RNS now out. Any idea's anyone. Been trawling re any whispers, leaks or other indicators. Nothing out there.

Zak Mir is looking at Rockhopper to reach 125p if a resistance level is reached.

All these positives help FKL and other companies with connections in the Falklands basin.

The Falklands area hopefully will be the equivalent of the 1898 Klondyke Gold Rush, which made a lot of people mega bucks. Well we can only hope. After all it is often said that Oil is the new Gold. Time to get me mule loaded up, now where's me shovel.

Note to self...Lay off those funny tablets the doc said would stop me hallucinating.

Strange acquisition or what. Would not have guessed this one. Talk about diversification. Still looks a good buy on fundamentals.

Up a bit today.
Could be connected to,
1 Fogl had huge volumes yesterday at many multiples of their daily average trades.
2 Borders and Southern are rumored to a take over bid by Shell.

So!! Why the sudden rise??

Some Desire connection ??

Any ideas ??

Peter

Could just be connected to todays OPEC report that crude prices are likely to increase greatly over the next few months after reaching a yet new record of $126.40 per barrel, as well as the feedback of oil usage is that there is very little reduction in use, even at the resent prices.
Also with the Lebanon situation, and Egypt stating they may supply troops the whole Muslim situation looks a bit more precarious that usual.
It looks like the oil producers are going to squeeze us till the pips squeak.
Of course now our ever caring PM has promised to listen, I am sure he will put the interests of consumers of oil before the coffers of the Treasury, and greatly reduce the tax on fuel to account for the huge increase in revenue for the government.
Yer right.

Good figures. Especially looking at The Equity shareholders' funds which at 30 September 2008 were £28.3 million (2007: £36.9 million) representing net assets per share of 312p....The shares at present are 200p per share. (2007: 436p per share).
Posative cash flow with an equally good cash strength position.
Even looking at these figures the current sp looks good.
No doubt the heights of the last 12 months were all the hype of the oil field activity. If/when these field do com onto line we will see these heights broken.
The reasons I chose this share is that even if these fields don't come in, they do have company value whereas those who are solely relying on these fields don't.
Any views out there.

FOGL's sp is dependant on whether BHP/BLT decide to drill in 2009, if they do go ahead in spite of a lower oil price this would generate a great deal of speculative excitement. Don't hold your breath!

Nice update re FOGL

Falkland Oil and Gas Provides Operational Update
Tuesday, December 16, 2008

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/Falkland_Oil_and_Gas_Provides_Operational_Update/95af389b.aspx

Re the trading update.

RNS states....will be slightly lower than market expectations of £2.4m.
The MoneyAm release states in line with expectations despite the difficult economic environment.

So RNS lower, MoneyAm in line. Great.
Still a bit of a neutral statement. As we know the only thing to give this a jump, up or down will be the final outcome from the oil fields.

It appears that figures released today show that although mergers/acquisitions over the last year have dropped in general terms by 20% globally and 9% in the UK, such moves in the Oil and Gas industry have risen by 73% in those listed in the UK.
Presumably most if not a large percentage will be of profit making companies.
So what will happen if companies such as those investing in the Falkland Fields start to make decent profits. Will they be taken out by the big boys.
The above figures do make it likely. There is a huge difference between 9% down and 73% up.
No personal opinion re this, just looking at the figures (taken from The Daily Telegraph).

What price a barrel of oil.

Oil is now around $50 per barrel, which according to an article in The Daily Telegraph is too low to cover cost of undeveloped fields or investing in new fields.
It states that to cover these costs the price would have to be around $70.
It then shows that at a time when the worlds know deposits are dwindling, Asia especially China is still expanding industrially at break neck speed.
China is expected to have 140 million cars on it's roads by 2020, a 7 fold increase.
As it takes many years from an initial find of a possible productive field, to the oil finally flowing, this must surely be an excellent example of why oil companies can not just sit on their hands when the oil price is not commercial enough.
They can not sit on the proverbial fence twiddling their thumbs.
Oil is the life blood of the modern world just as much as water was to the old one.
Wars were/are still being fought over both.
Yes there may be several new ideas for power/propulsion fuels but they are all many years away.
The price of the $180 oil barrel is not dead.

Results.

Looks like they are just ticking over and waiting for the oil fields to deliver.
Can't see the sp moving anyway from here except down.
At least the cash situation is still strong.

Will just sit on this till 2010 as I do not see drilling this side of Xmas.
If nothing moves in early 2010, no doubt many holders will review.
When will any of the Falkland Oil Field connected companies get that long awaited rig.
Still confident, but patience is wearing a bit thin.

Will be interesting to see if the sp finishes the day on a high after this afternoons AGM (currently 12% up).
With a market cap (as the 7th) of £23.36 mill and the holdings in FOGL worth at todays market price £15.9 mill thing are still looking positive.
Obviously it all depends on the final outcome of the wells to be drilled.
Still a big gamble but one in my opinion worth the current sp, not forgetting the decent divi.

Good news from DES...Desire Petroleum plc (AIM:DES) the exploration company focusing on the North Falkland Basin, is pleased to announce that it has exchanged a letter of intent with Diamond Offshore Drilling (UK) Ltd for the drilling unit the Ocean Guardian to undertake a four well minimum drilling campaign in the North Falkland Basin.

The Ocean Guardian is currently in the North Sea and following a programme of shipyard work will mobilise in November 2009. Projected arrival in Falkland waters is early February 2010. Desire has options to drill a further four wells for itself and or its partners. Further details will be announced post contract completion which is subject to various approvals, including Desire Board, Partner and regulatory approvals.

The next question will be who will be next for a rig... Fogl would be nice. What price FKL then.

Thought of a quick sell then buy back a I do feel todays rise is a bit overdone and it will close lower, but with a spread of 5%, the mms know the score.

As the sp rises so does the spread. Typical market games.

FKL up 50p to 310 by lunch. This is a GOOD day after such a long wait!