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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic - 30 Oct 2007 21:03 - 21 of 21816

NASDAQ continues to indicate north while all others are now looking south ...... as posted elsewhere, i am currently short of DOW as i think the markets are way way ahead of themselves and further, cannot see Fed reducing rates by more than 0.25%, and just possibly will not even do that ..... one way or another, after the news, or maybe even before it, expect a sell-off ..... DOW currently down about 80 this evening.

conversely, i shall almost certainly go SHORT on cable - i.e. :$ - as upper target of 20700 has been hit all bar a tiny fraction .... if Fed rates not lowered by more than 0.25% with (probable) indication of no more likely in the near future, then expect $ to rally sharply

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 13:17 - 22 of 21816

certainly not to my surprise, Dow is looking very soggy to open - currently indicating down 135 - so my short there is now comfortably in the money again.

on the other hand, $ remains exceptionally weak at 20830 ..... i confess that i thought it would strengthen very sharply from this level (see above) and with no further Fed cuts looking imminent, this may shortly prove to be the case

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 17:57 - 23 of 21816

NASDAQ is amazing .... it is running totally contrary to every other index

DOW, on which i am running a short, is now challenging or perhaps looking for support at 50 dma level of 13655, and if that fails with any impetus, then i guess the next level to look at will be 13200 being 200 dma

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 18:05 - 24 of 21816

and so have taken partial profit at 13665 and shall now watch and wait .....

rather prematurely it would now seem, but had to leave the office as too dangerous to leave totally exposed .... Dow now down 370 at 13560

Falcothou - 01 Nov 2007 20:03 - 25 of 21816

13665 long gone

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 20:08 - 26 of 21816

don't entirely disagree and have just closed my position completely with a very nice profit .....

what made you decide to go long? ...... did you just feel fall overdone or is there more "logic" than that?

Falcothou - 01 Nov 2007 20:13 - 27 of 21816

Sorry, cynic did not mean I had go long, more that 13665 was surpassed a long time ago, looks like it is trying to rally now as it tends to change direction in the last hour though may be a false charge

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 20:21 - 28 of 21816

equally sorry .... di not read your post properly.

as it happens, i have got greedy and taken a small(ish) long on Dow at 13585 on basis that there is likely to be at least a modest bounce overnight .... assume you know indices effectively do not close.

Falcothou - 01 Nov 2007 20:32 - 29 of 21816

Interesting to see what happens to the Hang Seng which is at astronomic levels. Where do you think the FTSE will open at? Lower than current futures of 6541 ? Currently looks like the Dow has stalled at the lights.

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 20:43 - 30 of 21816

FTSE is indicated to open at 6540/6545 but my guess is that it will open quite a bit lower than that even if Dow has (indicates) a bounce overnight

i also wonder whether we shall see $ bounce sharply as some short positions are unwound .... certainly hope so!

Falcothou - 01 Nov 2007 21:14 - 31 of 21816

Not really involved with forex as yet though keeping an eye on it as certainly a good idea to get in on a longterm trend. If or when UK housing /credit falls apart at the seams the pound will surely go into reverse. I find that gold really shifts overnight now you mention overnight positions

cynic - 01 Nov 2007 21:18 - 32 of 21816

i think gold is prob due for a correction too ..... i think it has raced ahead too far too fast, though i haven't seen the gold souk in dubai so busy for a very long time

cynic - 02 Nov 2007 12:42 - 33 of 21816

called right so far and (small) Dow long now showing modest profit with indicator showing Dow opening +55/60 on last night's close ..... if figures are not deemed disastrous, then could be a very sharp bounce, though whether it can be sustained is another matter entirely

cynic - 02 Nov 2007 12:45 - 34 of 21816

herebelow from

Jobs growth picks up
Strong gain in payrolls is more than double what was expected in October; unemployment remains steady at 4.7%.
November 2 2007: 8:34 AM EDT

NEW YORK ( -- Employers added more workers to payrolls in October, according to the government's closely watched jobs report that showed the labor market significantly stronger than Wall Street expectations.

There was a net gain of 166,000 jobs in the month, according to the Labor Department report released Friday, up from the revised 96,000 increase in September. Economists surveyed by had forecast an 80,000 increase in the period.

The unemployment rate stayed at 4.7 percent. That matched both economists' forecast as well as the rate posted in September.

steveo - 02 Nov 2007 16:12 - 35 of 21816

ftse will in all probability will bounce come monday, so have gone long.

Time will tell ?????

cynic - 02 Nov 2007 16:32 - 36 of 21816

if we are entering a bear phase, and i have not (quite) said that we are, then the mindset has to change insofar as whereas in a bull market, bad news is pretty much ignored, in a bear market, it is good news that is ignored.

steveo - 02 Nov 2007 16:35 - 37 of 21816

I will bear that in mind

steveo - 02 Nov 2007 16:35 - 38 of 21816

sorry about that bear faced pun, quite unbearable really

cynic - 02 Nov 2007 17:27 - 39 of 21816

so what's bruin that you are so afflicted this evening? ..... clearly you need to practice yogi to clear the brain!

steveo - 02 Nov 2007 20:51 - 40 of 21816

good day on gold has helped my mood.

better than the average bear booboo
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