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TPT Results - 250-270p Target (TPT)     

oddie - 10 Jan 2006 09:45

Stockdog,

What do you think of the latest results??

I thought they were ok. Quite positive outlook from the Company!!
The retail sector seems to be improving. Like-for-like sales figures still down from '04 but then again that was going to be very difficult as 2004 was an exceptional year!
One point is that as long as nothing nasty happens in the High street, the next set of results can only look positive compared with 2005...!

The Gross margin is improving which is important + store openings are going ahead as planned so maybe 2006 will be a great year for Topps Tiles!
.....and as was hinted in the press, Topps Tiles might well become a Takeover Target within 12 months.

If that's the case, what's a reasonable Takeout price in your opinion?? 3-3.50?

Thanks for replying.

Oddie

stockdog - 11 Jan 2006 17:41 - 2 of 182

I haven't really studied the fundamentals, other than to note that of any retailer TPT is probably one of the strongest and likely to survive. They seem to be keeping going with their roll out of new shops at quite a pace. I still believe the housing market has further to fall and that interest rates may rise to contain inflation imported by a weak currency in the mid term - neither good for retailers. Until then I'm following the chart as a spread better which tells me my buy order triggered at 202.90 on the last trading day of 2005 is so far correct showing me a 50% profit on my opening risk (using trailing stop loss). Let's see how long it runs before I'm stopped out. As I've said before, the double bottom at 160ish with intra-peak at 200ish, now that it has been proven by the break-out above 200 suggests we should be heading for 240 in the short term. That would give me a 120% profit. Thereafter, who knows where Mr Market will decide to take us.

sd

queen1 - 11 Jan 2006 21:22 - 3 of 182

oddie - You've started 3 different threads for TPT this week. I'm all for coverage as I'm a holder and big fan but would it not make sense to have all posters' views on the one thread?

oddie - 12 Jan 2006 08:28 - 4 of 182

Thanks Stockdog.

Yes, a re-test of 240-250p seems to be the general consensus in the short term.

You use charts to signal Buys & Sells. I'm not that familiar with charts and how to use them for that purpose but I would like to....

...is there a particular book on charting that you recommend?

Many thanks for replying.

A much relieved and happier TPT holder.

Oddie

stockdog - 12 Jan 2006 11:56 - 5 of 182

The following website I've found pretty useful as a basic starting point.

http://stockcharts.com/education/

Otherwise I'm using moving averages and seeing where a short term (say 20-30 dma) breaks up or down through a longer term (say 40-50 dma) to indicagte opening buys or sells on spread bets - so far with little success! but I'm slowly getting the hang of it and intend to persevere.

sd

oddie - 13 Jan 2006 11:30 - 6 of 182

Thanks for info Stockdog. Much appreciated!
Looked at website and found it a rather good introduction to technical analysis!

Unfortunately the SP is under pressure mainly since other retailers have come up with their (better than expected!) results, but all with rather cautious outlook for the next six months - SP has come from a high of 224p on Tuesday to today's 204 ish, that's almost -10% in less than 4 sessions!

......was wondering if the charts were showing a continuous downward movement to possibly re-test the 190s ??

Thanks for replying.

Oddie

oddie - 13 Jan 2006 11:39 - 7 of 182

p.s

Stockdog,
I guess that since SP has dropped 20p your trailing stop loss has kicked in...
are you out of TPT now? anyway, hope you've made some good money..!!

O.

stockdog - 13 Jan 2006 14:53 - 8 of 182

Au contraire - I still show a modest unrealised gain, sine I have kept my stop loss at 199p, just below the significant 200ish level whilst this minor retracement passes through - or becomes a definitive reverse and does stop me out!

I got royally screwed by AGA yesterday. Having opened a sell at 320 on Wednesday with a stop at 331p, the SP rose within minutes of my trade to 330.75 and tipped over into 332 for a few minutes yesteday morning, before retreating to the mid 320's from where for all I know it will continue ots decline as I predicted -pooh!

sd

oddie - 31 Jan 2006 10:28 - 9 of 182

Hello all,

Great to see sp recovering back to 220p's (levels last seen on results day before dropping back to 190's). I guess Carpetright's figures were really quite positive and encouraging which helped sentiment + Mortgage approvals are at the highest levels. 250p-270p does seem achievable by next results in June. The charts must be looking really strong... does anyone agree?

Thanks for replying.

Oddie


2517GEORGE - 31 Jan 2006 11:00 - 10 of 182

Evolution add recommendation, with target price of 245p
2517

oddie - 01 Feb 2006 09:36 - 11 of 182

Indeed 2517GEORGE -

From THE TIMES today:

"Topps Tiles put on 10p to 220p as a move into positive like-for-like sales at Carpetright, off 13p to 10.88, prompted Evolution Securities to repeat its 245p target on the tile retailer. Nick Bubb, analyst, notes that Carpetright trades at a 20 per cent premium to Topps, even though the formers 30 per cent market share in the UK gives it less room to grow than the latter."

TPT is the recovery play for 2006 according to many analysts, brokers etc...

Good luck to all & well done to those who had faith and held tight through the turbulent times!!

Oddie

oddie - 09 Feb 2006 18:03 - 12 of 182

Hello all.

I've noticed that both AXA and FIDELITY have recently bought a sizeable stake in Topps Tiles.

At the current price, 225p, it is too cheap, it's obvious, and the broker's 245p target is too low I believe.

If you compare TPT to Carpetright, it's trading at a big (and unfair) discount, so I'm wondering if a re-rating is on the cards for TPT?

A takeover story would not be too bad either....

Any ideas?

Oddie

Thanks for replying.
p.s this board has gone quiet...

2517GEORGE - 10 Feb 2006 10:17 - 13 of 182

Oddie
I have also noted that there has been far more selling than buying over the last week or so, but the sp is solid around 225p.
2517

stockdog - 04 Apr 2006 19:07 - 14 of 182

Break through today above the 230p resistance on trading update wihch seems to be well accepted by the market. More tomorrow?

queen1 - 04 Apr 2006 21:23 - 15 of 182

Hopefully stockdog. The news on first reading didn't look overly good but a broker upgrade and rising sales line was enough to break through 230p. I think there may be a little bit of profit taking but I also think we will reach the 250-270p range of this thread title by the beginning of the summer.

stockdog - 04 Apr 2006 23:43 - 16 of 182

Hope so, queen1 - my small up s/b was triggered by rising through 232p first thing, a couple of pence clear of the resistance line (the immediate retracement was a bit hairy, but we seemed to make it through the day OK in the end). Here's hoping I don't get stopped out before we hit 270p.

queen1 - 05 Apr 2006 10:50 - 17 of 182

Fingers crossed!

queen1 - 27 Jul 2006 13:00 - 18 of 182

Well we've entered the bottom of the range for the tread title (250p). Where to now I wonder?

And does anyone have any views on the 54p per share offer?

Greystone - 03 Oct 2006 07:59 - 19 of 182

Topps Tiles reports modest progress

queen1 - 28 Mar 2007 09:02 - 20 of 182

Topps Tiles said it expects its first-half pretax profit to be about 18.3 mln stg against 20.3 mln a year ago. The UK's largest tile and wood flooring specialist expects operating profit for the 26 week period to March 31, 2007 to be about 21.0 mln stg compared with 19.5 mln in 2006.

Overall group revenue is expected to be in the region of 101.8 mln stg, up 14.9 pct from last year, despite a continuing tough retail market, while like-for-like sales are anticipated to be up 4.4 pct.

Topps Tiles added its current period overall revenue reflects, for the first time, the revenue from the Dutch stores following the acquisition of its joint venture business in October.

The company also said its executive chairman Barry Bester will move to the position of non-executive chairman with effect from October 1.

2517GEORGE - 02 Jan 2008 14:37 - 21 of 182

Although down 1.75p I believe TPT has gone ex div today so a reasonable day for them, so far. I have been increasing my holding over recent months at these depressed levels, at some stage retail will be back in vogue, but maybe not until 2009. I'm content to wait and look forward to the decent dividends until the sp appreciates.
2517
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