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Travis Perkins (TPK)     

1nudger - 01 Jul 2005 16:48


i'd like some advise on this stock, new to share's but have a large holding at present, company figures look good, but share price seems to be under valued, any thoughts would help, i have a target figure of 22.00 end of year.

ptholden - 01 Jul 2005 17:12 - 2 of 100


ptholden - 01 Jul 2005 17:26 - 3 of 100


I don't do a great deal of fundamentals, so can't tell you if they are undervalued or not and please take what I say with a pinch of salt, I am somewhat prone to lapses of judgement, DYOR and all that.

However, I do like this chart for the following reasons:

1. The SP is in a near perfect uptrend since August last year and following recent activity there is no reason to think that this will not continue.

2. During June the SP formed a double bottom and has bounced. (Double bottom is a reversal pattern after a downtrend). What is improtant about this bounce is the accompanying increase in volume.

3. Following today's rise the SP has achieved a chart breakout, again on volume. By which I mean breaking above the resistance of 1750 established in March (4 times) and May. You may wish to be cautious and wait until the 1800 to confirm this breakout.

4. Moving Averages are all in the right order. RSI looks like it has some legs left.

5. MACD looks good: Moving average crossover & centre line crossover.

Not sure why you have set a target of 22. looking at the chart, the next hurdle should be the resistance at 19, whic is where I would set my target.

Wish I had been looking at this chart a week ago, although I may still have a go.

As I said, please take with a pinch of salt!!

good luck


ptholden - 04 Jul 2005 17:12 - 4 of 100


Can't reply to your email as your email is not activated.

Today's news certainly kicked the arse out of the SP. I actually posted this chart on the TA thread this morning, as I was interested to see if any other TA guys would have agreed with my comments on Friday.

Personally, I would have waited for the confirmation of the chart breakout through 1800 before investing. This was calculated on a 3% rise above the previous resistance. This would certainly have saved my bacon today. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, the SP may make another double bottom, which will result in a rebound. Also, drops on profit warnings / toughening market conditions tend to be initially overdone.


tubas - 09 Dec 2005 11:04 - 5 of 100

Having invested in TP, they have solidy declined for 12 months. I was wondering if they are close to the bottom, or have a way to go yet? Any thoughts would be most welcome.


emailpat - 19 Oct 2006 10:33 - 6 of 100

up or down?

emailpat - 26 Oct 2006 09:36 - 7 of 100

that's how far?

hangon - 17 Oct 2008 12:43 - 8 of 100

This is 2008 -

Travis Perkins - very little comment here - nothing since 2006 = wow!

So I guess the sp was on the back of Institutional holders backing the booming housinig market, without looking at the yield....which is pretty small.

Currently suffering from a PW and further drop today, but still 2.56 which is serious money IMHO . . Mkt cap is quite high...again it is something I expect to fall, maybe sub 1 - - - as are many other House/Builder stocks...Look at Taylor Wimpey - typically 25p - ouc.

hlyeo98 - 17 Oct 2008 12:51 - 9 of 100


XSTEFFX - 17 Oct 2008 17:59 - 10 of 100


justyi - 20 Oct 2008 14:07 - 11 of 100

Very bad debt and no divi now.

Travis Perkins cautious

UK builders' merchant Travis Perkins said it expects a more rapid decline in market activity. The company said today turnover for the nine months to the end of September is up 3.3% compared to 2007.

However, in recent weeks, trading has been below earlier expectations with both the merchanting and retailing businesses experiencing more difficult conditions as sentiment in construction markets has reacted to the extraordinary turmoil in financial markets.

Profits before tax and non-recurring charges for 2008 are seen to be at the low end of analysts' expectations.

For the first nine months of 2008, total turnover in the merchanting division is up by 3.1%. Whilst like-for-like turnover per trading day for this period was down by 1.2%, the trend of like-for-like sales in both September and early October has deteriorated sharply to minus 10%.

Total turnover in the general merchanting business is up by 2.1% with like-for-like turnover per trading day down by 1.1%. For this period, the specialist merchanting business has total turnover up by 4.9% and like-for-like turnover per trading day down by 1.4%.

The merchanting division continues to gain market share on a like-for-like basis. Product cost inflation has remained high and our gross margins have held up well despite lower market volume available.

Wickes also continues to gain like-for-like market share. Total turnover for the 39 week trading period ended on September 27th was up 1.2%. For this period, like-for-like sales per trading day were down by 2.6% with core products down by 2.6% and showroom sales lower by 2.5%.

Wickes gross margins are slightly below last year, reflecting modest increases in promotional activity throughout the industry.

Since the end of 2007 Travis Perkins has added a net 82 new branches to our merchanting network and a net 8 new Wickes stores representing retail space growth of 4.0%. It now trades from 1,241 locations including 26 branches operated by Toolstation.

The company said it is now taking further action to prepare the Group in advance of the expected steeper decline in activity. These actions include a reduction in operating costs and measures aimed at further reducing debt.

Travis will implement, before the end of 2008, actions aimed at reducing costs by at least 65m. This means, after absorbing overhead cost inflation and the full year effect of network expansion of 35m, costs are expected to show a net 30m reduction in 2009 from 2008.

Cash flow continues to be in line with expectations, with gains in working capital and reductions in capital expenditure partly mitigating the difficult trading conditions.

Plans for capital expenditure have been cut to less than 140m (of which 102m was spent in the first half). Net capital expenditure for 2009, after disposal receipts, will not exceed 50m.

To accelerate the reduction of debt, the board believes it is unlikely to recommend a final dividend for the current year.

hangon - 20 Oct 2008 14:22 - 12 of 100

Is this cash-flow surprising. We know house-sales are down, that building-sites are stopped, for want of buyers and so on - what would be surprising is that their suppliers of Sand, Bricks and Timber are not already down. The notion they'd pay the Dividend out of precious cash is - unreal.
This is (presumably) a well-run/managed Company and they need that cash, to reduce debt . . . . and probably will have been told so by their Bankers.
If they have significant debt tht helps to stop the Bank forclosing - but it means they will suffer a greater interest-rate...and most companies find they are into debt - despite shareholding understanding.
+Big companies use debt to expand their business - fact.

emailpat - 17 Nov 2008 18:02 - 13 of 100

up or down?

mitzy - 17 Nov 2008 18:20 - 14 of 100

I was speaking to a guy today who has worked on building sites all his life and he told me all work has stopped and men laid off its the worst he has seen so where is the demand coming from.

Up or down...?

This could fall to 70p in next 12 months imo.

hlyeo98 - 19 Feb 2009 08:34 - 15 of 100

Travis Perkins underlying profits slump - MoneyAM

Builders maerchant and Wickes DIY owner Travis Perkins today revealed a worse than expected 22.5% slump in underlying profit for the year ended 31st December 2008.

The group said it had incurred an exceptional charge of 56.2m reflecting the severe downturn in UK construction markets.

Travis Perkins said it made profit before tax and non-recurring charges of 202.5m in 2008, compared to 261.4m in 2007.

The group ended the period with reported net debt of 1.02bn and said it will not pay a final dividend.

Geoff Cooper, CEO, commented: 'We took early action in 2008 to deal with the increasingly tough trading environment and have set our business ready to manage continuing difficult market conditions in 2009.

'Our businesses continue to outperform competitors. In 2008 our divisions grew market share on a like-for-like basis and continue to record leading operating margins in each market segment - a particular advantage at this stage of the cycle. A number of competitors have already closed outlets and we expect further sector rationalisation, improving our prospects for continued like-for-like market share gains.

'Based on current forecasts, and with cost and debt reduction plans already in place and lower interest rates, we aim to reduce covenantable net debt by a further 125m in 2009.

'We have already taken decisive action, and stand ready to take further steps if necessary. We believe our approach will produce the best outcome for shareholders in this unusually challenging economic environment.'

hangon - 28 May 2009 21:22 - 16 of 100

28May RNS tells me something about new shares being issued - could the company just tell us how many shares are involved? . . . . what level of dilution does this represent?
The sp has dropped dramatically, although the last few months has seen a considerable "feel-good" rise in the sp . . . . but I don't see building suddenly increasing . . . . so I fail to understand this recent rise....and today's fall is directly a result of a very confusing RNS....IMHO.
+Come-on Directors, tell us in a few words, eh?

ThenewTradesman - 30 Jul 2009 17:00 - 17 of 100

Massive rise since mid june-and large rise today-setting on its highs

why such a large gain?

any views

skinny - 30 Jul 2009 17:05 - 18 of 100

Interim results today?

skinny - 31 Jul 2009 11:46 - 19 of 100

Until I came across this thread yesterday, I had never looked at these before. The chart looks interesting and this could prove to be a good day trading share.


ThenewTradesman - 31 Jul 2009 13:27 - 20 of 100

head and shoulders formed at 8.16??

skinny - 19 Aug 2009 15:59 - 21 of 100

I've been watching these since I posted - anyone else see a triple top (within a triple top?) in the chart in post 1?
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