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Premier Oil - Can it go as far (or further) than Cairn ?? (PMO)     

pjstanton - 21 Jan 2004 13:43

What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please


apple - 21 Jan 2004 14:24 - 2 of 543

You can hope they make a really big strike like Cairn

pjstanton - 21 Jan 2004 16:56 - 3 of 543

I think they made a few already. Some more would be nice

Sun Tuesday 20-01-04

PREMIER OIL (stock market value is half that of CAIRN ENERGY, despite the fact that it is likely to produce more oil this year)


They make a good point I think.



pjstanton - 23 Jan 2004 16:50 - 4 of 543

New 52 week high

Closed today at 507.75p

All we need now is some decent weekend press.

Gonna stay on board for the ride to 600p




snoball - 11 Feb 2004 16:10 - 5 of 543

Nice chart! Must be worth a bet.
edit: Hmmm.....offer at 538 and Fins buy is 548!
They must be bullish.

Perky - 12 Feb 2004 22:14 - 6 of 543

Why the big drop today folks?

snoball - 13 Feb 2004 00:03 - 7 of 543

Perhaps it is just some profit taking.
Last time it dropped like today it soon picked up again.

This means I have no idea why it dropped.

pjstanton - 13 Feb 2004 12:41 - 8 of 543


The Overlooked Philippines Marks A New Area For Premier

Premier Oil has bulked up its holdings in South East Asia with the addition of an exploration licence in the waters off Luzon in the Philippines. The 10,800 sq km area in the Ragay Gulf was described by chief executive Charles Jamieson as overlooked despite the existence of oil seeps.

Jamieson added that recent seismic data supports its prospectivity, pointing to the existence of numerous leads in a variety of play types. The initial work programme will comprise technical studies and a seismic survey ahead of exploration drilling.

Premier will be partnered in the licence by PEARL Energy with 42.5 per cent, and the Philippines National Oil Co, with 15 per cent.

The Philippines has a relatively recent history of oil production. It started pumping about 1,000 barrels per day in 2001, although that number quickly climbed, rising to 23,500 bpd by 2002, as deep-sea oil deposits under Shells US$4.5 billion Malampaya gas field in the South China Sea were developed.

Production is still modest, however, and the country remains a net importer of oil, leaving its economy vulnerable to sudden spikes in oil prices.

Shells success in unearthing the Malampaya oil, however, has prompted a flurry of investment from foreign oil companies. Six new offshore exploration projects got underway in the Malampaya basin, led by Nido Petroleum, Philippines National Oil Co, Trans-Asia Oil, Unocal and Philodril, while Trans-Asia has started exploratory drilling in the East Visayan Basin. A new exploration licensing system was launched in August 2003, the First Petroleum Public Contract Round (PCR-1), which put 46 additional exploration blocks on the auction block. PCR-1 replaces the old system of negotiations with individual companies and the closing date for bids is March 2, 2004.

While oil is highly sought after to offset costly imports, the government-led transition to gas-fired power generation means there is a ready market for explorers who strike gas.

The Philippines proven hydrocarbon-bearing structures, under-explored territories and a government keen to see reserves moved into development could be a winning combination for Premier, which has a track-record of successfully building production bases in Asia.

In Pakistan, for example, the London-listed company has successfully appraised a footwall fault compartment on the eastern side of the BHP Billiton-operated Zamzama gas field. The appraisal well found 36 metres of net gas bearing sandstone and during testing flowed at 40 million cubic feet per day of gas. The well has been completed as a future producer once new gas sales contracts are concluded.

With the field already in production these reserves can be readily commercialised, said Jamieson last month.

Investors will be hoping 2004s early burst of positive news flow can be sustained as the year progresses. Premier is lined up to sink wells in Guinea Bissau - where the company recently paired up with Occidental Petroleum of the US - Gabon, India, Pakistan, Indonesia and the North Sea.

Indonesia, for example, will see an appraisal of the 2001 Gajah Baru-1 discovery and the drilling of the Macan Tutul-1 exploration well. In Pakistan, Chung-1 will be spudded north of last years Zirkani-1 gas find while in north east India there will be drilling on the Jaipur oil play at the back end of the year.

In the UK, the company will sink Criollo-1 in the Moray Firth in the second quarter to test a Buzzard look-alike oil play.

Spearheaded by recent successes in Mauritania, West Africa remains a key area for Premier. Up to nine wells, both exploration and appraisal, are on the books for the second half of 2004 in Mauritanias deep-sea waters. Three wells will test pre salt plays in the waters off Gabon: Dussafu, which will spud in mid 2004 and, pending a review of seismic data, Iris Marin and Themis Marin. One of the first wells off the blocks in 2004 will be Sinapa-2 offshore Guinea Bissau. A rig has already been contracted for the well, which will test a 250 million barrel oil prospect, one of a number of similar prospects on the blocks.

pjstanton - 18 Feb 2004 10:54 - 9 of 543

After the recent bout of profit taking this should make a difference



U.S. Oil Holds Strong at Over $35/Barrel
Wed February 18, 2004 05:22 AM ET

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices held strong on Wednesday as the market braced for the possibility of tighter U.S. gasoline supplies while the soft dollar lent some support.
U.S. light crude (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) for March eased nine cents to $35.10 a barrel after adding 63 cents on Tuesday. London Brent (LCOc1: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 61 cents to $31.30 a barrel.

Prices for U.S. crude are heading back toward January's post-Iraq war high of over $36 a barrel after OPEC's surprise decision last week to cut output quotas.

The market has found support from gasoline futures, which rallied in the United States on Monday after an unplanned shutdown of a gasoline-making unit at BP's Texas refinery. Repair work was continuing, BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said.

A Reuters poll showed analysts expect a 630,000-barrel fall in U.S. gasoline stocks last week. Crude stocks are forecast to have risen by one million barrels.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases inventory data for the week to January 13 on Thursday, a one-day delay due to Monday's Presidents Day holiday.

U.S. dollar weakness against the euro and other major currencies is helping underpin oil prices.

pjstanton - 18 Feb 2004 14:32 - 10 of 543

After the recent bout of profit-taking it would appear that some people are stake-building again, bought on 16/02/04 means that they got them quite cheaply.
IMHO back over the five pounds in a few days or so




I am writing to advise you that as a result of a purchase of sharers on the 16 February 2004, Lansdowne Partners Limited Partnership, on behalf of client funds that is manages, now controls 4,103,529 shares of Premier Oil Plc (sedol number 3356001). This represents 5.04% of the shares in issue.


pjstanton - 21 Feb 2004 13:15 - 11 of 543

I note that PMO are in the list of 12 Top Takeover Targets
Anyone hear any more about these thoughts ??



Plays of the Week:
*Sportech (SPO.L) - Buy.
*Oxus Mining (OXS.L) - Buy.
*BSS Group (BTSM.L) - Buy.
*Petra Diamonds (PDL.L) - Buy.
*Sopheon (SPE.L) - Buy.

Hit List - 12 Top Takeover Targets:
*Acambis (ACM.L).
*Benchmark (BMK.L).
*BG Group (BG.L).
*Bovis Homes (BVS.L).
*Capital Radio (CAP.L).
*Celltech (CCH.L).
*De Vere (DVR.L).
*House of Fraser (HOF.L).
*Invensys (ISYS.L).
*Kingston Communications (KCOM.L).
*Premier Oil (PMO.L).
*Westbury (WBY.L).

pjstanton - 09 Mar 2004 13:01 - 12 of 543

Almost back to previous 52 week (several years) highs.

Cairn going crazy today on the upside and more PMO sells than buys. But the PMO price just hangs on in there.

What we need now is another positive announcement for a breakout to happen.



pjstanton - 04 Apr 2004 14:23 - 13 of 543

Interesting insight on many smaller oil companies
regards - Peter

From Sunday Telegraph - Edmond Jackson

Mauritania shapes up

Mauritania looks to be shaping up as a major offshore energy province for the next 25 years. The extent of the opportunity is reflected by Hardman Resources, an Australian explorer also listed here.

BG, the FTSE100 gas group, has agreed to pay $132m (73m) for Hardman's 13.1 per cent interest in a production-sharing contract in Area A, and an 11.6 per cent interest in Area B. As if such a cash boost was insufficient to fund the development opportunities, Hardman proposes to raise 32.7m via a share issue at 45.5p.

I rated Hardman a "buy" around 30p but felt well exposed to Mauritania via Dana Petroleum. The latter's prelims on Wednesday confirmed the risk/reward profile that attracted me to buy and hold, with net profit soaring from 6.8m to 19.6m and earnings per share up from 9.2p to 26.5p.

Warren Buffett has said that one should judge the success of investments by their business operating performance rather than share price swings. Yet it puzzles me why Dana shares do not merit a p/e ratio of about 12, roughly in line with the sector, which implies a share price of about 320p against 255p currently.

Ironically, Ramco Energy has enjoyed much better support from the City, with its Aim-listed shares being chased up to 400p this year. They have plunged to a 30p range on disappointments with the Seven Heads gas field in the Irish Sea. Ramco contributes to a sense that resource group shares are a sheer gamble on which you may lose all your money. But the simple point to recognise is that a spread of projects lowers risk whereas Ramco has turned itself essentially into a one-shot company.

After steadier growth in production this year, Dana is targeting 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2006. This is before potential acquisitions; indeed, I am inclined to think that high oil prices will encourage smaller energy companies to focus on drilling before seeking acquisitions.

What should one make of Dana's preliminary assessment of the Pelican-1 exploration well, offshore Mauritania? I was initially sceptical of December's news about a gas find since there was no immediate market. Little wonder Dana's shares did not rise recently, unlike those in Cairn Energy.

In this game commerciality is all. Major share moves are based on quality oil or gas finds for which a market can be served or developed.

After analysis Dana now estimates about 1,000bn cu ft of gas in place on the Pelican structure, of which 600bn to 800bn cu ft are estimated to be recoverable. Taking the lower estimate, 600bn cu ft equates to about 100m barrels of oil equivalent. Given Dana's 76.5 per cent ownership, this means Pelican gas could potentially boost reserves from 123.7m barrels to about 200m.

Perhaps I should stop moaning that Dana never makes a high-impact discovery!

It will still take four to five years to achieve commerciality, but the involvement of BG Group in Mauritania suggests other major players in liquified natural gas are likely to move in and make things happen.

Dana added that since the base of the hydrocarbon-bearing interval was not encountered in Pelican-1, "there is scope for considerable further upside in estimates". I accept that warily but reckon this exploration team is genuinely excited.

A further positive is that major oil discoveries offshore Mauritania have involved "gas caps", with oil deeper in the structure. Gas at Pelican-1 is oil-associated and analysis of the reservoir fluids and rock samples indicates the possibility of significant light oil deposits.

Dana is not the only player offshore Mauritania I would rate "long-term buy"; Hardman and Premier Oil are also attractive, say for a self-invested pension.

I regard Dana's Mauritanian acreage as "wildcat", but improvements in seismic technology and drilling make the risks more interesting. Owning a large acreage offshore Mauritania is enough to go for, although Dana's exploration is well balanced elsewhere.

For enterprising investment I make no apologies for keen exposure to oil and gas. This sector has been immune to the market's recent change of mood; indeed the likes of Cairn, Dana, Hardman and Premier show lots of commercial momentum.

I recognise that traders in Dana may have done better than a firm holder such as me - I should be a bit more active. But selling my stake in any of the dynamic explorer-producers would be throwing away potential.

pjstanton - 20 Apr 2004 09:50 - 14 of 543

Chart looking spectacular, still going up very strongly. New +/- 6 year high yesterday.
If Sinapa comes in then there will be another leap up.

Would recommend the "Fool" board for an in depth analysis of this stock.

Further to go IMHO.



PS. Anyone got any further insight on this one, would be happy to hear it.

Perky - 28 Apr 2004 05:45 - 15 of 543

Any ideas please as to why the drop in price over the last few days?

pjstanton - 01 May 2004 14:29 - 16 of 543

Perky - 28 Apr'04 - 05:45 - 14 of 14
Any ideas please as to why the drop in price over the last few days?

Hi Perky, They announced a "plugged and abandoned" well off west Africa. But they were ambiguous in their statement as to whether there would be future potential from "Sinapa-2"

When they last took a dive downwards 480p was the bottom, currently at 500p I feel they are reaching an "oversold" status very soon.

I managed to get out at 580p, but their 52 week high was 612p. I would be looking to get back in around the 480-490p mark.

They have a large ongoing drilling program for this year (+/- 20 wells), if they announce some success from these then the price should climb back to the 52 week high or better.

Good luck & regards


Perky - 12 Nov 2004 12:32 - 17 of 543

Anyone any thoughts please on whether the recent fall in PMO is just a blip or have we seen the best?

seawallwalker - 12 Nov 2004 13:46 - 18 of 543

You tell me after you have looked at this. ">graph.php?startDate=12%2F11%2F99&period=

scottie7 - 12 Nov 2004 14:21 - 19 of 543

Extract from an todays e-mail. Make what you will and I hope it is of some use.

Although oil prices are set to move much higher in time, for now they look as if they are due to pull back for a while. This could be good for equities generally, but maybe not for Premier Oil. The immediate up trend has been breached, and it looks as if we are due to test support levels between 510p and 595p.

seawallwalker - 24 May 2005 08:03 - 20 of 543

Just pulled this one from the mists of time.

They bought another 100000 shares yesterday the lastest of a series of buy backs, leaving just 81 million out there.

Now that is not a lot imo.

Perky - 28 Mar 2006 08:13 - 21 of 543

Its been a long time since anyone has posted to this thread and since last May, the share price has risen well. It's surprising that there is no interest for PMO on the Moneyam BB's. This company has some interesting exploration sites which will come good this year. Many comentators in the industry feel the share price has far to go.

Any interest amongst Moneyam investors as to its potential?
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