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Debenhams Bid Process - takeover panel report (DEB)     

travis - 14 Oct 2003 19:13

Takeover Panel
14 October 2003

2003/23

OFFERS BY

LARAGROVE LIMITED ('LARAGROVE')

AND

BARONESS RETAIL LIMITED ('BARONESS')

FOR

DEBENHAMS PLC ('DEBENHAMS')




On 4 August, Laragrove posted an offer to Debenhams' shareholders. On 29 September, Baroness posted an offer to
Debenhams' shareholders, such offer to be implemented by way of a scheme of arrangement. Neither offer has yet been
declared final and either offer may therefore be increased or otherwise revised.

In order to provide an orderly framework for resolution of the competing offers and in accordance with Rule 32.5, the
Panel Executive has ruled, following discussions with the parties, that except with the consent of the Panel
Executive:


if either Laragrove or Baroness wishes to revise or increase its offer (other than in
accordance with the following procedure) after 5.00 p.m. on Thursday 30 October then that
bidder must lodge any increased offer with the Panel Executive by 4.00 p.m. on Friday 31
October (the 'Auction Start Date'), such increased offer to be announced at approximately 5.00
p.m. that day;


if the bidder with the lower offer at 5.00 p.m. on Thursday 30 October, or if both bidders,
announce(s) an increased offer by approximately 5.00 p.m. on the Auction Start Date then an
open auction procedure shall begin and the bidder with the lower offer following such
announcement(s) shall have until 4.00 p.m. on Saturday 1 November to lodge an increased offer
with the Panel Executive, such increased offer to be announced at approximately 5.00 p.m. that
day;


if the bidder with the lower offer after the announcement(s) at approximately 5.00 p.m. on the
Auction Start Date, or if both bidders, announce(s) an increased offer on Saturday 1 November,
the bidder which then has the lower offer outstanding shall have until 4.00 p.m. on Sunday 2
November to lodge an increased offer with the Panel Executive, such increased offer to be
announced at approximately 5.00 p.m. that day. If the bidder with the lower offer after the
announcement(s) at approximately 5.00 p.m. on Saturday 1 November, or if both bidders,
announce(s) an increased offer on Sunday 2 November, the lower bidder shall have until 4.00
p.m. on Monday 3 November to lodge an increased offer with the Panel Executive, such increased
offer to be announced at approximately 5.00 p.m. that day;


if such an increased offer is announced on Monday 3 November, then the open auction procedure
shall cease to operate. Both bidders shall be invited to submit sealed bids to the Panel
Executive by 1.00 p.m. on Tuesday 4 November specifying a fixed maximum price that each bidder
is prepared to pay. Formula offers will not be permitted. An announcement by the bidder
with the highest offer will, unless otherwise agreed by the Panel Executive, be released by
5.00 p.m. that day;


if, during the open auction, the bidder with the lower offer does not lodge an offer with the
Panel Executive by 4.00 p.m. the next day or if a party is the under-bidder in the sealed bid
process (as appropriate) then that bidder will not be able to amend its offer thereafter;


a further announcement will be made regarding the offer timetable once the above process has
been completed; and


the Panel Executive reserves the discretion to amend the above procedure as appropriate.



Each of the parties has accepted this ruling.

14 October 2003

goldfinger - 29 Apr 2009 08:30 - 2 of 119

Broker upgrade...

0604 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley upgrades Debenhams (DEB.LN) to overweight from equalweight, based on valuation. "A combination of higher forecasts and the industry re-rating means we now wee significant upside potential even if Debenhams undertakes a rights issue." Estimates shares are worth 110p should the group raise GBP400M. Adds shares could be worth 160p if the capital raising proves unnecessary. Says downside risks are decreasing. Notes management still have plenty of strategic levers to pull. Lifts price target to 112p from 63p. Shares closed at 83.5p. (KAV)

goldfinger - 29 Apr 2009 08:57 - 3 of 119

Another upgrade....

28-Apr-09 Debenhams DEB UBS Buy 87.00p 60.00p 115.00p Upgrade

goldfinger - 29 Apr 2009 09:35 - 4 of 119

And we have more brokers recos...

24-Apr-09 Debenhams DEB Investec Securities Buy 88.00p - - Upgrade
24-Apr-09 Debenhams DEB Deutsche Buy 88.00p - - Upgrade
24-Apr-09 Debenhams DEB Nomura Buy 88.00p - - Upgrade

goldfinger - 07 Oct 2009 15:20 - 5 of 119

Gone back long on Debenhams broker upgrade out this afternoon. SP target of 115p.

BRIEF-RESEARCH ALERT-HSBC initiates coverage of 6 UK retailers
07 Oct 2009 - 07:09

Oct 7 (Reuters) - UK MID-CAP RETAILERS: *

HSBC cuts Topps Tiles Plc to neutral from overweight *
HSBC starts Asos PLC with overweight rating; price target of 435P *

HSBC starts Debenhams Plc with overweight rating; price target of
115P *

HSBC starts Mothercare PLC with overweight rating; price target of

700P * HSBC starts Sports Direct International Plc with overweight rating;
price target of 155P

* HSBC starts Ted Baker PLC with overweight rating; price target of 550P
*
HSBC starts Carpetright PLC with underweight rating; price target
of 700P

:) :cool:



goldfinger - 07 Oct 2009 15:23 - 6 of 119

results due 22nd of October 2009.

goldfinger - 07 Oct 2009 21:24 - 7 of 119

Impressive list of Brokers following this stock.....

and derd cheap on a forward P/E of just under 10 going into 2010.

Debenhams PLC


FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)


Investec Securities
05-10-09 BUY 122.00 10.19 135.00 7.55 1.00

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
05-10-09 BUY 121.30 10.34 140.82 7.77

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
05-10-09 BUY 133.30 10.10 144.40 8.10

Shore Capital
02-10-09 BUY 121.80 6.60 130.80 7.10 0.90

Seymour Pierce
18-09-09 HOLD 122.00 10.10 135.00 7.80

Nomura Research Institute
15-09-09 BUY 10.07 7.63

Altium Securities
15-09-09 HOLD 125.50 10.40 143.60 7.90

Arden Partners
15-09-09 BUY 118.50 9.00 129.00 7.20 2.00

Oriel Securities
15-09-09 BUY 122.00 10.10 0.50 145.00 7.50 0.50

Numis Securities Ltd
15-09-09 ADD 126.00 7.10 141.90 8.10

Pali International
21-08-09 NEUT 125.00 7.00 2.70 145.00 8.00 2.90

Panmure Gordon
19-06-09 SELL 89.95 7.42 2.00 84.28 6.95 2.00


2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 123.92 10.11 0.07 139.05 7.82 0.34
1 Month Change 1.60 -0.03 -0.02 3.51 0.18 -0.06
3 Month Change 2.68 -0.02 -0.01 15.48 0.45 -0.42


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS -19.55% 17.02% -22.65%
DPS 28.57% -98.89% 385.71%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA 268.80m 278.25m 283.50m

EBIT 173.00m 185.84m 188.31m

Dividend Yield 8.12% 0.09% 0.44%

Dividend Cover 1.37x 144.43x 23.00x

PER 8.98x 7.68x 9.92x

PEG -0.46f 0.45f -0.44f

Net Asset Value PS -81.79p 56.00p 49.00p


Dil - 08 Oct 2009 00:07 - 8 of 119

Bit dodgy mate ... but who dares wins :-)

goldfinger - 08 Oct 2009 15:07 - 9 of 119

2 more broker Recommendations...

07-Oct-09 Debenhams DEB Morgan Stanley Overweight 77.90p 105.00p - Reiteration

07-Oct-09 Debenhams DEB HSBC Overweight 77.90p - 115.00p New Coverage

goldfinger - 09 Oct 2009 09:20 - 10 of 119

Moving up nicely this morning..... nice.

goldfinger - 09 Oct 2009 14:44 - 11 of 119

DEB going forward on a P/E of just under 10 to Aug 2010 derd cheap...

Debenhams Forecasts

Year Ending Revenue (m) Pre-tax (m) EPS P/E
31-Aug-09 2,343.05 123.91 10.01p 7.8
31-Aug-10 2,374.31 135.50 7.87p 9.9

Brokers aswell by and large like the stock...

What The Brokers Say

Strong Buy 11
Buy 2
Neutral 5
Sell 1
Strong Sell 1

Total 20

Source Digital Look.



goldfinger - 12 Oct 2009 10:49 - 12 of 119

Solid start to the week some interesting analysis on the retail sector as a whole here......

Sunday Times

Shares in the retail sector have more than doubled since last autumn and now trade at an average of 12 times 2010 earnings, according to leading sector analysts.

Some racier stocks, largely where earnings are low and there is a big recovery multiple built in like Currys owner DSGI are priced at more than 20 times future earnings. Given the prospect of increased unemployment and tax rises in 2010, some question when the sector is going to blow up.

The theory goes that retailers have been one of the big beneficiaries of the recent equities rally and these typically cyclical stocks have been chased too hard too soon.

Jonathan Pritchard at Oriel Securities has another theory. He is a bull on the sector he points to mitigating factors such as cheaper property rents and wage freezes that will reduce pressure on retailers' underlying cost base. He also believes shoppers will probably spend more in 2010 than they did during 2009.

In the past few months, signs of economic recovery have given greater confidence to those still in work and they may be prepared to spend a bit more than last Christmas. This could trigger upgrades to analysts' 2010 earnings forecasts from a low base which would make the current punchy earnings multiple for retail shares (still in line with the long-run average for the sector) appear a bit less crazy.

goldfinger - 14 Dec 2009 08:41 - 13 of 119

Debenhams has been through the wringer over the past year, but it is on a robust footing now and should make more advances over the next couple of years. Chief executive Templeman is ambitious and wants to take store numbers from about 160 to as high as 230. Further expansion overseas may also be on the cards.

Early 2010 will almost certainly be tough for retailers as fears of unemployment and higher taxes weigh on consumers' minds, but Debenhams is gaining market share and making progress even through hard times. When conditions ease, it should benefit further. At 83p, the stock is a buy, says the Daily Telegraph.

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=3176090

goldfinger - 14 Dec 2009 20:40 - 14 of 119

Mostly all positive and why not with a miserly forecast P/E of just 9.6 to 2011..........

Debenhams PLC

FORECASTS
2010 2011

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Shore Capital
11-12-09 BUY 142.10 7.60 0.90 161.00 8.50 0.90

Panmure Gordon
11-12-09 HOLD 134.00 7.45 150.60 8.37 3.00

Investec Securities
10-12-09 BUY 135.00 7.55 1.00 159.00 8.90 2.50

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
10-12-09 BUY 140.77 7.82 152.80 8.49 2.50

Oriel Securities
09-12-09 BUY 145.00 7.50 0.50 153.00 8.00 0.80

SG Securities
09-12-09 HOLD 8.14 9.34 3.00

Numis Securities Ltd
08-12-09 ADD 141.90 8.10 156.00 8.90

Singer Capital Markets Ltd
07-12-09 BUY 144.40 8.10 165.00 9.20 4.60

Seymour Pierce
01-12-09 HOLD 135.00 7.80 140.00 8.00

Altium Securities
30-11-09 BUY 143.90 8.00 163.70 9.10 1.50

Arden Partners
30-11-09 BUY 135.00 7.60 2.00 155.00 8.70 3.30

Nomura Research Institute
23-10-09 BUY 134.10 7.34 151.80 8.35

Pali International [R]
21-08-09 NEUT 145.00 8.00 2.90

2010 2011
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 138.33 7.70 0.27 154.97 8.60 1.65
1 Month Change -1.81 -0.02 -0.03 2.93 0.01 0.05
3 Month Change 2.80 0.06 -0.13 1.04 -0.34 -0.05


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 15.99% -23.16% 11.69%
DPS -92.06% -46.00% 511.11%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA 278.50m 286.09m 301.33m

EBIT 182.40m 195.08m 205.55m

Dividend Yield 0.60% 0.33% 1.99%

Dividend Cover 20.04x 28.52x 5.21x

PER 8.26x 10.75x 9.63x

PEG 0.52f -0.46f 0.82f

Net Asset Value PS -32.22p 41.00p 48.00p

goldfinger - 15 Dec 2009 20:04 - 15 of 119

And even more Broker love ins with this stock....

Broker recommendation full details

Date: 27 November, 2009
Broker: Goldman Sachs
Company: Debenhams


Recommendation:
Raises price target to 111p from 108

InterMarket Stock's recommendation rating:
Buy

Over all Intermarket Stock rating for
Debenhams
Overweight


Historical recommendations for Debenhams

27 November, 2009 Raises price target to 111p from 108 Buy

13 November, 2009 Retain Buy price target 120p Buy

13 November, 2009 Retain Buy price target raised to 110p from 90p Buy

27 October, 2009 Starts with Overweight - price target 100p Overweight

goldfinger - 17 Dec 2009 20:17 - 16 of 119

Another broker jumps aboard with a buy reco...

Debenhams Consumer, Cyclical Buy 81.9 Shore Capital Stockbrokers

goldfinger - 18 Dec 2009 12:45 - 17 of 119

And another Broker BUY note out this morning....

Debenhams Consumer, Cyclical Overwt 100p 81.4p 22.9% Barclays Capital

sees 22.9% upside.

goldfinger - 20 Dec 2009 20:06 - 18 of 119

Should be good news for Debenhams.......

Page last updated at 11:50 GMT, Sunday, 20 December 2009

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8423219.stm

Christmas shoppers defy cold weather to spend

Shoppers have been spending despite the cold weather
UK shoppers have defied the harsh winter weather to spend during the last weekend before the Christmas holidays.

The New West End Company, which represents more than 600 traders in central London, said sales were up 10% on last year's sluggish trading.

"We estimate 140m to be spent over the weekend and we are looking to go over a million people," it said.

Heavy snowfall has caused traffic chaos in many parts of the UK, and is expected to continue on Sunday.

Sales were reported to be brisk across the UK, while credit card firm Visa expects people to keep spending this week.

Visa expects to process a new record of more than 17 million transactions in the UK on 23 December, up 16% from the same day last year.

'Fed up'

"We think it's going to be significantly greater this year because people have bounced back from recession," said Richard Dickinson, chief executive of the New West End Company, which represents shops in Bond Street, Oxford Street and Regent Street.

"Either they are fed up with the recession and want to enjoy Christmas or they are thinking we are pulling out of it now."

The company said only 40% of goods were on sale this year, compared to 90% last year.

Customers were also buying more expensive items such as televisions, as they attempted to beat the increase in value-added tax, back to 17.5% from 15%, in the new year.

Bluewater Shopping Centre in Kent expects 250,000 shoppers over the weekend and said November sales rose by 5% compared with the same month last year.

"We have had a tremendous few months in the run-up to Christmas," a spokesman said.

Capital Shopping Centres, which represents 14 regional shopping centres including Braehead in Glasgow, Lakeside in Thurrock and Metrocentre in Gateshead, reported its busiest day of trading on Saturday.

The company said more than seven million shoppers had passed through the centres this week.

The Met Office said that "heavy and prolonged" snow showers would continue through the afternoon across Greater Manchester.

goldfinger - 23 Dec 2009 09:09 - 19 of 119

Good news for DEB.......

SHARES MAGAZINE WEEKLY TIPS
23 December, 2009 08:18:14 AM


Tips for 2010
* Beazley - BSkyB - Eaga - Micro Focus - Reed Elsevier - Victrex - Standard Chartered - Alterian - Avocet Mining - Debenhams - HSBBC Infrastructure - London Mining - Redhall - Workspace - Advanced Computer Software - AFC Energy - Akers Bio Sciences - Begbies Traynor - Fairpoint - Falklands Oil & Gas - Luminar


goldfinger - 29 Dec 2009 09:09 - 20 of 119

Not doing too well at the open but Shares magazine tip from xmas edition.......

Debenhams (DEB) BUY - 83.4p - Stop loss: 66.7p

A debt reduction programme, shrewd acquisitions and likely profit margin improvement all
mean retailer Debenhams is worth buying for 2010.

goldfinger - 31 Dec 2009 08:47 - 21 of 119


Wed 20:43 Times Article



Self-centred shopping meant that Boxing Day and Monday were the two busiest online shopping days of the year, according to Hitwise, the online research group.

Robin Goad, research director of Hitwise, said that the number of internet hits beat even the pre-Christmas peaks on December 6 and 7. However, he said that there was less of a Christmas Day surge this year than last.

On Boxing Day, online retailers that received an above-average spike in traffic included Next, Currys, Debenhams, Tesco Direct, Comet and PC World.

The top site was eBay possibly buoyed by a wave of customers hoping to sell unwanted presents followed by Amazon, Argos, Next and Play.com. Mr Goad said that online retailers with a bricks-and-mortar presence outperformed pureplay online retailers during the sales period.
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