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Currency Traders Thread (£$Y)     

Shortie - 15 May 2014 10:47

Thought it about time we had a separate thread for currency plays.

Charts Currently Removed - New Ones To Follow Soon

Good Reading If You Like FX
http://www.mizuhobank.com/fin_info/exchange.html

Shortie - 15 May 2014 14:15 - 2 of 164

Current positions running moved to title.

jimmy b - 15 May 2014 23:21 - 3 of 164

Good thread Shortie , i've had a go at trading forex over the years ,joined various trading sites as well , i found it more economical to sit ripping up £20 notes ,another form of trading i was no good at (like indices) ... I shall watch with interest ...

Shortie - 16 May 2014 09:42 - 4 of 164

LONDON, May 16 (Reuters) - Sterling closed in on its biggest weekly fall against the dollar in six weeks on Friday, still feeling the negative effects of a shift in expectations on when the Bank of England will raise interest rates. Traders widely expect the BoE to be the first major central bank to raise rates, probably early next year. But its quarterly inflation report and accompanying remarks by Governor Mark Carney earlier this week suggested it may not move quite as soon as many had anticipated. The pound fought off further downward pressure on Friday, however, holding its ground against the two major global currencies. Weaker-than-expected U.S. and euro zone data the previous day made the UK economy look better by comparison. "We think sterling is topping out at the $1.70 level against the dollar. It might make another test of $1.70 in the very near term, but we don't think it will make a lasting break above," said Alvin Tan, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in London. "But we think sterling will continue to do well against the euro," Tan said. "The policy divergence between the UK and euro area is much more stark. As we move forward, that difference will become even greater." In early trade in London on Friday, sterling was flat on the day against the dollar at $1.6790 GBP=D4 and at 81.63 pence to the euro EURGBP= . The pound is down a third of one percent against the dollar this week, its biggest weekly decline in six. On a trade-weighted basis against a basket of major currencies, sterling was down around a quarter of one percent on the week, the biggest weekly fall in two months. The magnitude of the weekly declines is relatively small, however. They also come after a rally in recent months that took sterling to a five-year high against the dollar and 16-month peak against the euro. Tan pointed out that implied one-month volatility in sterling, the rate of expected change in its price over the coming month, is historically low and even lower relative to the dollar and euro. One-month sterling volatility is less than 5 percent GBP1MO= , and is more than 6 percent in euro/dollar EUR1MO= and dollar/yen JPY1MO= . Few in the market doubt that the BoE and European Central Bank are on different policy paths. The BoE's next step likely to be a rate hike; the ECB is preparing the ground to ease policy next month. That points to a lower euro/sterling rate, says Tan and analysts at BNP Paribas, who recommend selling the euro at 81.40 pence to target 78.00 pence. "We doubt that the fall in UK rates following the inflation report will last long," they said in a note on Friday, predicting that the first rate hike could even come later this year.

Shortie - 16 May 2014 11:55 - 5 of 164

15/05/2014 GBP/JPY short 170.68 closed at 170.46 for +22pts.

Shortie - 16 May 2014 15:59 - 6 of 164

NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady against major currencies on Friday as selling of the currency faded with benchmark U.S. yields stabilizing at their lowest levels in six months, although the greenback faces further weakness if yields resume their decline. The dollar pared earlier losses against the yen and euro after a stronger-than-expected report on U.S. housing construction but is still on track for its biggest weekly losses since early April. "Falling yields have been problematic for the dollar," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. The drop in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries yields came in the face of encouraging domestic economic data in recent weeks. On Friday, the government said housing starts rose 13.2 percent to 1.07 million annualized units in April, the strongest level since November 2013. ID:nL1N0O20H1 The bond market rally has confounded analysts and traders who reckoned it will eventually peter out and the dollar will rebound from current levels. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR were last at 2.516 percent after hitting a six-month low of 2.473 percent on Thursday. The 10-year yield is set to fall nearly 11 basis points this week. US/ The dollar traded at 101.55 yen JPY= , above a two-month low of 101.31 yen set on Thursday. Chart support for the dollar lies at 101.20 yen, close to some intraday lows touched in March and the dollar's 200-day moving average. The greenback was little changed against the euro, trading at $1.3715 EUR= after falling to $1.3648 on Thursday, its lowest since late February. The euro was down about 0.5 percent for the week against the dollar, putting it on track for its second straight weekly decline. Against the yen, the euro was flat at 139.17 yen EURJPY=R after hitting a three-month low of 138.77 yen earlier. Disappointing euro zone growth figures on Thursday heightened expectations the European Central Bank will embark on more stimulus at its June policy meeting, and some investors are betting that the euro could grind lower in coming weeks. Traders also pointed to funds moving to safety after a sell-off in Greek bonds halted a rally in debt of weaker euro zone members. The sell-off in peripheral bonds, if it gathered pace, was likely to hurt the euro, traders said. The yield on 10-year Greek bonds GR10YT=RR edged up 2 basis points to 6.851 percent, its highest since late March. "We have a lot of volatility in Europe especially the last two days. I find it hard for the euro to rally from here," Franulovich said. The implied one-month euro/dollar volatility EUR1MO= , the expected price swings over the coming month, has risen this week from 7-year lows to 5.8 percent on Friday.

goldfinger - 16 May 2014 16:07 - 7 of 164

Hey I like this thead. Well done Shortie.

Staring us in the face.

Briiliant idea although it should have been obvious.

Ill take part in about 2 years if im still alive. Going for my 5th mill appartment block from sept.

Lovely canal side property.

Cheers and well done Shortie.

Shortie - 16 May 2014 16:12 - 8 of 164

16/05/2014 EUR/GBP short 0.81614 closed at 0.81440 for +17.4pts

Will carry Cable over the weekend.

Thanks for the comments GF and Jimmy

Shortie - 16 May 2014 16:32 - 9 of 164

Is it better to place current positions in the header or just post normally as I make and close trades? I'm now thinking to just post normally will make the thread easier to follow, that is if anyone decides to follow the thread anyway..

jimmy b - 16 May 2014 16:39 - 10 of 164

Post normally Shortie , like you do with FTSE trades , i'm sure many will follow this thread .

Shortie - 19 May 2014 11:11 - 11 of 164

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - Sterling eased on Monday, on growing talk the Bank of England will step in to cool the UK housing market, which would allow the central bank to keep interest rates lower for longer to sustain recovery elsewhere in the economy. BoE Governor Mark Carney at the weekend gave his strongest warning to date about the risks of a housing bubble and said the central bank was looking at new measures to control mortgage lending in a housing market which is short of supply. ID:nL6N0O405D Britain's housing market has made a swift recovery, with prices up about 10 percent in the past 12 months. That has put the spotlight on the BoE's ability to prevent a bubble forming without raising rates sooner than it was planning for fear of derailing the recovery in the wider economy. Speculation is widespread that the BoE's Financial Policy Committee could tighten mortgage lending rules when it meets on June 17. ID:nL6N0NO2CD That will ease the pressure on the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates and could hurt sterling in the short run. ID:nL6N0NZ4XY Currently, traders are pricing in the chance of a rate rise in the first quarter of 2015. Sterling slipped against a struggling dollar, trading at $1.6813, well below its recent near-five-year highs of $1.6997 GBP=D4 . It was down against the euro with the single European currency up 0.1 percent at 81.55 pence EURGBP=D4 . "We maintain a tactical short sterling/dollar position," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note. "In the $1.6650/30 area, we would look to switch back to bullish strategies." Talk that a proposed merger between Britain's AstraZeneca AZN.L and U.S. drugmaker Pfizer PFE.N might not go through was also weighing on the currency. Completion of the merger would mean Pfizer having to buy pounds to pay British shareholders, hopes of which had supported the pound in the past few weeks. ID:nL6N0O413J DATA AND BOE MINUTES EYED Minutes from the MPC's latest meeting and April CPI inflation data are due in the coming week. "Sterling bulls are hoping that MPC hawks including (Martin) Weale may start voting to increase the BoE's base rate," said Mansoor Mohiuddin, head of currency strategy at UBS. "The minutes will be closely followed to see if all nine MPC members continued to vote for unchanged policy. But the UK data isn't showing inflation picking up, despite the strength of the economic recovery." April inflation data is due on Tuesday. Annual inflation is expected to rise to 1.7 percent from 1.6 percent a month earlier, but still well below the BoE's target of 2 percent. A lower-than-expected number will add to expectations that the BoE will keep rates low. ECONGB Last week the central bank's quarterly inflation report and accompanying remarks by Governor Carney suggested a rate hike may not happen quite as soon as many had anticipated. Still, the UK economic picture painted by recent data was brighter than that of the euro zone and United States, analysts said, making the pound attractive whenever it retreats.

Shortie - 19 May 2014 13:02 - 12 of 164

LONDON, May 19 (Reuters) - The dollar slid to its weakest against the yen in more than three months on Monday as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates faded. The pound faced pressure from signs a major merger will fail. The yen's break past 101.20 yen per dollar JPY=EBS was the first time since November that it has traded stronger than its 200-day moving average. In nominal terms, it is the strongest since early February. That reflected both a dip in U.S. treasury yields in the past week and the dollar's broader failure to deliver the strength many had expected this year. But dealers said there were options barriers around 101.00 and talk of official buyers in Japan around 100.80 yen. That will block any further push before a two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan starts on Tuesday, they said. "There does seem to be a lot of daylight above these levels, but around here I've gone into wait-and-see mode," said one London-based currency dealer. "I'm not quite sure if the market has the energy at the moment to follow through on these kinds of moves. There do seem to be bids around 100.80/100.75 and we have the BoJ meeting coming up as well." The yen reached as high as 101.10 in morning trade in Europe before steadying. "The chief reason is the slide in U.S. 10-year yields," said Alvin Tann, a currency strategist with Societe Generale in London. "I wouldn't be surprised if we got down to levels of 100 to 100.5." It has been a choppy couple of weeks for major currency markets, hamstrung this year by a lack of clear differentiation between the economic stories of Japan, Europe and the United States. Growth is now moving at different rates, although official borrowing costs in all three remain near rock bottom. Signs the European Central Bank is preparing to loosen monetary conditions even further knocked the euro back last week. The single currency gained 0.2 percent on Monday to $1.3717 EUR= after a volatile session on Friday. Analysts from Credit Agricole said that the euro's resistance to further losses at the end of last week raised prospects it may head higher. "This week's focus will be on PMI releases, which we expect to confirm a trend of further improving growth conditions," they said in a morning note. "Under such conditions, position squaring-related EUR upside cannot be excluded. We advise against selling the single currency around the current levels. From a broader angle, however, we expect rallies to remain a sell." PFIZER BLOW Merger activity around a handful of Britain's biggest companies has been one factor helping sterling this year, and some dealers said AstraZeneca's AZN.L rejection of Pfizer's PFE.N latest bid could put some pressure on the UK currency. The pound's performance gave little sign of it by midday on Monday, however. Sterling, one of this year's better performers among the majors thanks to an improving economy, fell just 0.1 percent versus the euro and was almost unchanged against the dollar. GBP= EURGBP= "There are people talking about sales of the pound after this news," said one London-based currency dealer. "I don't know if that's because Pfizer had genuinely done some of this business or just because some people had been betting on it, but it would be a disappointment." Investors also await minutes later this week of the Federal Reserve's April 29-30 policy meeting, as well as a private survey on China's manufacturing sector for May. ECONUS ECONASIA The dollar index stood at 79.952 .DXY , down slightly on the day after notching up a modest 0.2 percent gain last week, when it touched a six-week peak of 80.338 on Thursday. Commodity currencies were sluggish as well with the Australian dollar just a touch lower at $0.9353 AUD=D4 following a flat week. Traders said the 94 U.S. cent level is still providing a cap for the Aussie for now.

Shortie - 20 May 2014 09:34 - 13 of 164

LONDON, May 20 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a 16-month low against the British pound on Tuesday, hurt by widening short-term interest rates in favour of the pound before UK data that is likely to show an uptick in the inflation rate. ECONGB In contrast, the European Central Bank is grappling with falling price pressures and is likely to ease monetary policy next month. The euro fell to 81.25 pence EURGBP=D4 , its lowest since January 2013 and down 0.3 percent on the day. Bids from macro funds and corporates are cited at 81.10-8.15 pence. Sterling was up 0.2 percent at $1.6845 GBP=D4 .

Shortie - 20 May 2014 09:35 - 14 of 164

Still holding GBP/USD short @ 1.67664 no other currency positions currently.

Shortie - 21 May 2014 09:37 - 15 of 164

GBP/USD gone short @ 1.69116. With my existing play I now average 1.68390.

Shortie - 21 May 2014 09:45 - 16 of 164

LONDON, May 21 (Reuters) - European stocks were under pressure on Wednesday, spooked by overnight falls on Wall Street, and the dollar fell against the yen as the Bank of Japan suggested the world's third largest economy needed no additional stimulus for now. A broad flight to quality helped push low-risk German Bund futures higher and weighed on lower-rated euro zone debt. Gold, also sought as a safe haven, held steady. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 share index .FTEU3 was down 0.02 percent by 0815 GMT, extending the declines of recent days and taking it further away from the 2014 peak it hit last week. Rallies in European shares have paused on signs the economic recovery is stuttering. Elections to the European Parliament in coming days are being watched closely for any impact on reforms in several countries. "We have seen since last Thursday some corrective action in (low-rated euro zone bond) markets ahead of the EU elections. This can go further," said Matthias van der Jeugt, a fixed income strategist at KBC. The fall in European shares followed a 0.2 percent drop in Tokyo .T and a broad selloff on Wall Street .N , in which Caterpillar CAT.N dropped 3.6 percent after the heavy machinery company said "retail statistics" for the three months to April were down 13 percent. Tuesday's fall took losses in U.S. stocks to more than 1 percent since the Dow and the S&P 500 hit record closing highs on May 13 as investors seek confirmation the U.S. economy is accelerating. The BOJ kept monetary policy steady, as expected, and signalled its aggressive stimulus was helping broaden the economic recovery. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was optimistic Japan was on course to meet the bank's inflation target. ID:nL3N0O70S6 Later on Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen speaks in New York and the U.S. central bank will release the minutes of its latest policy meeting. Most market participants do not expect any solid clues on when interest rates may rise. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR dipped in Europe to 2.51 percent, close to half-year lows. Comments from a senior Fed official that the central bank would be "relatively slow" in raising interest rates saw the dollar fall to a 3-1/2 month low against the yen JPY= FRX/ . "Kuroda's comments are lowering expectations of further BOJ stimulus and there is position squaring going on which is driving dollar/yen lower," said Manuel Oliveri FX strategist at Credit Agricole. "At the same time one has to be cautious about the FOMC minutes with Yellen also due to speak later in the day." EURO BOOST The drop in U.S. yields also helped the euro, which rose 0.15 percent to $1.3717 EUR= , pulling away from a 2-1/2 month low of $1.3648 hit last week on expectations the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy in June. German Bund futures FGBLc1 rose and cash 10-year yields DE10YT=TWEB edged lower, while yields on 10-year Spanish and Italian bonds each rose 9 basis points to 3.17 percent and 3.33 percent respectively. Weaker shares burnished gold's appeal as a hedge and the metal held steady below $1,300 an ounce. Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 edged up towards $110 a barrel as U.S. crude inventories fell and on renewed violence in OPEC producer Libya.

Shortie - 21 May 2014 09:50 - 17 of 164

May 21 (Reuters) - Sterling jumped half a percent on Wednesday on the back of a strong batch of retail sales figures and minutes from the Bank of England's last meeting that showed some policymakers leaning closer to raising interest rates. The pound jumped to 16-month highs against the euro EURGBP=D4 in the run up to the figures and minutes' release at 0830 GMT and extended gains immediately afterwards to trade as strong as 81.03 pence per euro before steadying. Against the dollar GBP=D4 , it hit a two-week high of $1.6922 after the figures showed retail sales surged 6.9 percent year-on-year in April, far more than expected. Gilt futures FLGcv1 turned negative and were last down 20 ticks on the day. The yield spread between 10-year British and German government bonds rose by around 3 basis points to 128.5 basis points, its highest level this week.

Shortie - 21 May 2014 10:11 - 18 of 164

Easy sell signal on the 15 min, lets not forget the FED minutes later today which could well knock Sterling off its perch.

Shortie - 21 May 2014 16:08 - 19 of 164

GBP/USD 1.69116 closed @ 1.68803 +31.3pts

Shortie - 21 May 2014 18:33 - 20 of 164

Maybe the sale was a little premature!

Shortie - 27 May 2014 13:31 - 21 of 164

LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) - Sterling sank as much as 0.4 percent against the dollar and euro on Tuesday after weak lending data added to concerns over a European election win for the anti-EU UKIP party. Dealers said the pound, little traded during a UK and U.S. holiday on Monday, was also hurt by Pfizer's PFE.N formal confirmation on Monday that it was abandoning its attempt to buy AstraZeneca AZN.L for nearly 70 billion pounds ($118 billion) "There is a mix of factors behind this morning's move," said one senior London-based bank dealer. "Certainly the failure of the AstraZeneca deal is one element. We have also probably taken a knock from the election result." UKIP, which wants Britain to leave the European Union, took almost a third of the vote in the EU polls. That prompted the party's leader to target holding the balance of power after next year's UK parliamentary election, which polls suggest might produce no outright winner. Sterling has been one of the hottest picks among major currencies since the second half of last year, buoyed by expectations an accelerating economy would prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates next year. Some BoE officials have sought to temper such expectations in the past month and data on Tuesday showed Britain's banks last month approved the lowest number of mortgages since August last year. Sterling later recovered ground, however, to trade just 0.1 percent weaker on the day at $1.6833 and 81.08 pence per euro. DOLLAR STRUGGLES The dollar fell 0.1 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY , extending weakness since the end of last week after another retreat in U.S. bond yields. A stronger dollar was one of many investment houses' major bets at the start of this year but the U.S. economy has so far failed to deliver the comprehensive pickup that would convince the Federal Reserve it needs to raise dollar returns next year. U.S. two-year bond yields have fallen around 10 basis points in the past month despite a blip higher at the end of last week, and are less than half their British equivalents. "The dollar continues to struggle, and you can see that in the U.S. rate curve and rate differentials which haven't moved in the dollar's favour," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy with BMO in London. "If the data, starting with durables today, does not show the beginning of a more encouraging bounce back from Q1, then the dollar is going to continue to struggle," Gallo added. A raft of U.S. confidence indicators as well as orders for durable goods are due out on Tuesday, starting at 1230 GMT. The dollar lost 0.16 percent against the yen JPY=EBS to stand at 101.80 in early European trade. It fell almost 0.3 percent against the Australian dollar AUD=D4 and 0.2 percent against sterling GBP=D4 . The euro EUR=EBS held on to most of Monday's gains, largely the result of relief that the EU elections did not deliver a knockout blow to any of the bloc's more fragile, debt-ridden governments. Traders said a squeeze in short euro positions had given the euro some support overnight as it managed to stay above major technical markers such as its 200-day average against the dollar and 100-day average against the yen. "It's a sad reflection of the lack of volatility in FX markets that we now report 30 point moves as being newsworthy," said Sean Keane, a director of Triple T Consulting and formerly a markets trader at Credit Suisse. Prospects of policy action from the European Central Bank at its June 5 meeting have weighed on the common currency in the past few weeks and comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi on Monday reinforced those expectations. ID:nL6N0OC24U Reuters reported earlier this month that the ECB is preparing a package of policy options for its June meeting. It includes cuts in all its interest rates as well as targeted measures aimed at boosting lending to smaller firms.
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