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Thomas Cook Group PLC (TCG)     

goldfinger - 03 Aug 2010 08:03


Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44

2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

mitzy - 12 Jul 2011 09:10 - 2 of 1559

One to avoid.


HARRYCAT - 12 Jul 2011 09:11 - 3 of 1559
Whilst it has yet to finalise third quarter results it has become clear that Thomas Cook's Q3 numbers will be behind expectations, with its underlying operating profit for the three months to 30 June 2011 likely to be around 20m, which is 5m lower than the comparable prior year period.

In a statement the company said: 'This would leave us circa 40m behind our cumulative prior year result as we enter the last quarter of our financial year and below the guidance given at the time of the interim results in May. The main reasons for this shortfall are the higher than previously forecast impact of the ongoing political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), particularly on our French operations, and the performance of our UK business in the face of difficult trading conditions.'

'The MENA impact will be substantially higher than previously estimated, with our French business in particular seeing further reduced demand and lower margins during peak season for its key destinations of Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco.'

'The profitability of our UK business continues to be impacted by the difficult trading conditions, mainly as a result of the continued squeeze on UK consumers' disposable income. As a result, it is now appropriate that we revisit the effectiveness of our UK business model. The UK's new management team, which we announced at the time of the interim results, has begun a fundamental strategic and operational review of the business.'

'Our Central Europe, Northern Europe and Airlines Germany businesses continue to perform well and, despite the impact of MENA, are in aggregate delivering operating results ahead of the prior year.'

'We continue to perform well on cash flow, with circa 900m of available cash and committed facilities at 11 July 2011, and our focus remains on reducing our debt and strengthening our balance sheet. There are a number of initiatives already underway to deliver progress on this including the disposal of certain hotel and surplus assets.'

'As a consequence of the trading issues outlined above, we now expect our full year underlying operating profit to be around 320m (2010: 362.2m).

hlyeo98 - 13 Jul 2011 12:22 - 4 of 1559

Profit warning from Thomas Cook

THOMAS COOK suffered a 300MILLION stock market hammering yesterday after revealing Brits are shunning summer breaks to hotspots such as Egypt and Turkey.

Shares in the package holiday giant plunged 28 PER CENT to 87.85p - wiping the nine-figure fortune off its market value - when it stunned the City with a monster profits warning.

Chief exec Manny Fontenla-Novoa said Brits were cutting back on everything and revealed holidays to Egypt, where resorts include Sharm el-Sheikh, had HALVED after the chaos there earlier this year.

Demand for Turkey has fallen as hoteliers up prices. And the French were completely avoiding Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt due to tensions there, he added.

Mr Fontenla-Novoa told Sun City: "The trading conditions are the worst I've ever known. The destinations in North Africa are decimated. In the UK the market is very tough and consumer confidence very low."

Thomas Cook takes 22million Brits and Europeans away every year. This year's profits are likely to be 320million - down 60million on initial forecasts. Dire trading means punters can grab savings of up to 50 per cent on packages this month and next.

Mr Fontenla-Novoa announced a "fundamental review" of the firm's UK business which could see more jobs go. It may also mean a raft of older self-catering accommodation is ditched - with the firm focusing on new all-inclusive beach-front resorts.

hlyeo98 - 14 Jul 2011 09:50 - 5 of 1559

Continues to slide... 82p now

dreamcatcher - 14 Jul 2011 09:54 - 6 of 1559

A very well run company. With the world we live in now cheap counts. Will close a lot
of shops now,staff made redundant. What a world. Is that what eveyone wants
ryanair companies,. No not me.

hlyeo98 - 14 Jul 2011 11:54 - 7 of 1559

Nobody likes Thomas Cook holidays... business model not feasible with current economic climate.
Everybody goes for no frills with Easyjet, Ryanair etc.

dreamcatcher - 14 Jul 2011 12:28 - 8 of 1559

They have been very successful until these tough conditions. Their main destinations have come under pressure due to unrest. Disagree with nobody likes them.

hlyeo98 - 14 Jul 2011 13:07 - 9 of 1559

Serving its 3rd profit warning in less than a year certainly tells us something's wrong with the company. Blaming on unrest is just an excuse as the first was before it...

The Arab Spring has hit holiday bookings at Thomas Cook far more than expected, forcing it to post its third profits warning in less than a year. The holiday firm, which runs the Going Places high street chain of travel agents, also blamed the weak UK economy and launched a review of its UK business.

The political unrest that swept across the Middle East and North Africa earlier this year has hurt the whole travel industry, as many holidaymakers have been put off visiting the region.

Thomas Cook admitted that the impact of the Arab Spring had been greater than previously expected. In particular, its French operations have seen a slide in demand for holidays to Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, despite it having cut prices in an attempt to stimulate demand.

"The Middle East and North Africa are the number one holiday destination for the French, but they are staying at home a bit more this year," said a Thomas Cook spokeswoman.

Other holidaymakers are heading to Turkey instead, which is among the top 5 holiday destinations along with Spain (including the Balearics and Canaries), Greece and Cyprus. Egypt and Tunisia, which were among the top 5 destinations last year, have been replaced by Florida, helped by a more favourable sterling-dollar exchange rate.

However, Thomas Cook has taken a hit as hoteliers in Turkey have put up their prices to cash in on their popularity, and the company felt it was unable to pass on all of the price increases to holidaymakers in the UK

hlyeo98 - 14 Jul 2011 14:51 - 10 of 1559

Wow... 77p now.

hlyeo98 - 15 Jul 2011 11:18 - 11 of 1559

71p now

hlyeo98 - 18 Jul 2011 19:30 - 12 of 1559

Travel operator Thomas Cook Group has agreed to extend its credit facilities for one year, with a reduced interest rate.

Thomas Cook received a one-year extension of its committed bank facilities, which comprises of a 200m term loan and an 850m revolving credit facility, to May 2014.

The interest margin on the term loan facility has reduced to 2.25% and reduced to a rate between 2.00% and 2.50% for the credit facility. Previously, the margin was 2.75% for both facilities.

Thomas Cook, which had issued its third profit warning, said it will start a strategic and operational review of its business because of the on-going weakness in the UK.

Shares of the company slipped to 67p

dreamcatcher - 24 Jul 2011 17:44 - 13 of 1559

Thomas Cook to see 1,100 'ghost flights' to boost profits. 17:56, Sunday 24 July 2011

Embattled airline company Thomas Cook will fly more than 1,100 flights from British airports this summer with no passengers to help increase profits.

The travel firm, which has issued three profit warnings this year, will fly "ghost flights" in a deliberate attempt to bolster profits by moving aircraft to meet peaks in demand, executives have revealed.

Thomas Cook, which has 42 planes and flies to 201 locations, plans to run 1,133 empty aircraft from British airports in the six months from April to October - usually a peak time for holiday companies.

Planes are shifted from English airports to Glasgow, for example, for the start of Scottish school holidays.

Its (Paris: FR0010370163 - news) closest rival, Tui, flies only half as many ghost flights despite having more aircrafts.

The group said the empty flights were a small proportion of its 30,000 this summer: We do these flights to increase the profitability of the overall business by making sure we can capture periods of high demand.

However, an executive told The Sunday Times he did not think the empty flights were meeting the expected profit targets. He said: That might have been the original intention, but to me it indicates they are not well organised.

The company, which will have to record emissions per passenger, has said it has not calculated the environmental cost of the programme.

The British firm has been losing money hand over fist in the last year, issuing profit warning blaming everything from the Arab Spring to aircraft problems to cash-strapped holidaymakers.

The UK arm of the business, one of the worst hit, saw losses of 158m, up from 116m last year.

The company sought to calm market nerves last week by negotiating a one-year extension on its bank loan and a reduction in the interest margin on its facilities.

Shares in Thomas Cook have fallen from a 52-week high of 207p, closing on Friday at 72p. That values the company at 615m.

hlyeo98 - 25 Jul 2011 08:05 - 14 of 1559

Wow... this shows how desperate it is getting... and demonstrating poor management and how eco-unfriendly it is.

hlyeo98 - 26 Jul 2011 22:07 - 15 of 1559


hlyeo98 - 02 Aug 2011 13:10 - 16 of 1559

61p - record low at the moment.

dreamcatcher - 28 Sep 2011 20:45 - 17 of 1559

Thursday preview: Bumpy flight to continue for Thomas Cook
Date: Wednesday 28 Sep 2011

If profit warnings are like London buses in the rush hour, and tend to come in threes, then shareholders in Thomas Cook can sit comfortably ahead of the package tour operators trading update on Thursday, because the group has already had its allotted three warnings over the last year.

The performance of perennial rival TUI Group cannot be viewed as an entirely reliable guide, as TUI has navigated choppy waters more adroitly than Thomas Cook this year, but some comfort can be drawn from TUIs statement last week that it has seen a strong finish to the summer season, while trading for winter 2011/12 was said to be satisfactory overall.

Numis Securities is not anticipating too much sunshine in the pre-close statement, however, given that economic conditions have continued to get worse since July. With little financial headroom to fund further significant cash rationalisation costs, Numis expects Thomas Cooks focus will be on selling assets to reduce its debt mound.

The company announced last week that Belgian Frank Meysman will take over as company chairman when current chairman Michael Beckett retires at the beginning of December, but the company is still looking for a chief executive, after Manny Fontenla-Novoa stepped down abruptly at the beginning of August.

skinny - 29 Sep 2011 07:03 - 18 of 1559

Pre-Close Trading Update.


Many of our businesses have performed well this year, notably Northern Europe, Central Europe and our German airline. However, our overall performance has been impacted by our UK business and the disruption in the MENA region, particularly on our French business. Summer booking trends in our key markets have remained largely in line with expectations since we last reported.

-- Underlying operating profit expected to be broadly in line with market expectations;

-- Cashflow performance is strong;

-- Variety of measures underway to strengthen the balance sheet;

-- Actions underway to increase UK cost base flexibility as part of the overall UK business review.

Trading and cashflow performance

The Group delivered steady results for July and August, in line with our expectations, but September has been a more challenging month, particularly in our French business. However, we still expect to deliver a result broadly in line with market expectations.

dreamcatcher - 29 Sep 2011 08:47 - 19 of 1559

8:13, Thursday 29 September 2011

LONDON (Reuters) - Thomas Cook expects to reach an agreement with its lending banks by the end of October to relax the criteria for a key test of its financial health due in December, Finance Director Paul Hollingworth told Reuters.

"I think we should have an agreement by the end of October. If things are getting tighter what we should do is build back that confidence. We're in very constructive talks with the banks," Hollingworth said in an interview on Thursday.

Hollingworth also said he did not expect the company to reinstate dividends in the short time.

"We won't resume dividends until we've re-built the balance sheet," he said.

Hollingworth said he didn't expect the company to appoint a permanent chief executive before next year. He also said he could not rule out a rights issue as one way of bolstering its finances

dreamcatcher - 29 Sep 2011 10:35 - 20 of 1559

Troubled Thomas Cook Imposes Dividend Break

Sky News 2011, 10:57, Thursday 29 September 2011

After losing its chief executive following three profits warnings this year, Thomas Cook is scrapping dividend payments to shareholders.

In a trading update, Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURTRUSD - news) 's second biggest travel operator said it was now looking to strengthen its balance sheet and was working closely with its lending banks as it battled tough trading conditions.

Thomas Cook wants to achieve a substantial reduction in its net debt over the next two to three years.

It faces a test of its banking covenants in December at a time when its cash inflow is usually weak because it is a quiet time for bookings.

But its statement said the board was confident it could achieve greater financial flexibility through the bank discussions before then.

Package holiday operator Thomas Cook, which has 750 travel shops, has been damaged by weaker business in Britain, where its core customer base of families with young children has been hit hardest by the deteriorating economic climate.

The disruption to holidays as a result of the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and higher fuel prices are other factors.

As a result of these issues and the grounding of flights because of last year's volcanic ash cloud, Thomas Cook's share price has dipped by almost 90% over just 18 months.

Its (Paris: FR0010370163 - news) chief executive Manny Fontenla-Novoa quit last month in the wake of three profits warnings since February.

The company said today it expected underlying operating profit to be broadly in line with its last forecast, which was about 60m lower than initially hoped for.

It said business in July and August was in line with expectations but September had been more challenging, particularly for its French operations.

Looking ahead, UK bookings for winter breaks are slightly behind the 5% capacity reduction that has been imposed because of weak demand.

gibby - 21 Oct 2011 10:26 - 21 of 1559

excellent news - very well received in the city - expecting more here today - should reach close to 65p at very least - very strong buying a bargain from this market leader - sell home and get in here!! lol
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